by We’re just a day away from the start of the 2024 Presidents Cup, where the Americans are 65%-70% favorites according to the betting markets. For context, the International side has won outright just once since the event’s inception in 1994.
Every team event provides an opportunity to evaluate strategy and scrutinize lineup choices. So in advance of this week’s play, let’s take a look at some key team golf decision-making considerations from a strategic perspective.
Keep the Weak Links Away From Foursomes
Most captains tend to put every player on the course for one of the first two sessions at a Presidents Cup or Ryder Cup. This helps players get their feet wet in a high-pressure environment, and it also gives you some feedback as to who is playing well on that stage and at that specific golf course.
In foursomes (alternate shot), players can’t hide mistakes like they can in four-ball (best ball). Therefore, you should put your weakest link(s) in the first four-ball session rather than foursomes. Keep an eye on this strategy over the first two sessions of the Presidents Cup on Thursday and Friday.
How Jim Furyk deploys Max Homa on Thursday and Friday is a good strategic litmus test (Fried Egg Golf)
Specifically, I’ll be watching how Team USA uses Max Homa. Homa was a controversial captain’s pick, as his recent form is the worst in the competition on either team. If Homa isn’t featured in the opening four-ball session, to me that is a clear captaining mistake, because it virtually guarantees he’ll play foursomes the following day. Of course, Homa could defy expectations and play solidly, but the goal for each side is to maximize your chances of winning. Playing Max Homa in foursomes isn’t Team USA’s best option.
The Best Iron Players Should Tee Off on Odd-Numbered Holes
Royal Montreal is a relatively neutral golf course. It’s a 7,300-yard par 70, with tight fairways and thick rough. I don’t expect it to significantly favor either bombers or super accurate drivers; it should rate out somewhere close to the middle, though you’ll likely hear plenty of accuracy talk given the thick rough.
However, a crucial factor for foursomes is that all four par 3s are on odd-numbered holes. Given that, captains should prioritize having their best iron players tee off on odd-numbered holes. For example, Scottie Scheffler, the best iron player in the world, could end up hitting approach shots on up to five consecutive holes (Nos. 4-8) if he tees off on odd-numbered holes. This is the clear strategy I’d go with to gain an edge.
Pairings I’d Like to See
For the American team, I’d love to see a foursomes pairing of Scottie Scheffler and Russell Henley. If you keep an eye on golf data, you know that Russell Henley is one of the most consistent players in the world. He doesn’t get enough respect, nor did he receive enough consideration for the 2023 Ryder Cup team. Henley made the cut in all four major championships this year, including a T-7 finish at the U.S. Open and a 5th place at the Open. He is talented, in-form, and one of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball on the planet.
Scottie Scheffler might want to play with Sam Burns, but what our theory presupposes is, maybe he shouldn't? (Fried Egg Golf)
I’d love to see Henley tee off on the even-numbered holes and give Scheffler opportunity after opportunity from the fairway. Plus, Henley is an adept enough putter to pay off Scheffler’s close approach shots, which is an added bonus. I suspect Scheffler will want to play with his buddy Sam Burns instead, but best friends don’t always make the best pairings!
For the Internationals, Sungjae Im and Corey Conners would pair nicely in foursomes, despite their two losses together in the 2022 Presidents Cup. It’s understandable if the Internationals decide to change the mojo up here, but I wouldn’t be afraid to go back to it. It’s a strong duo.
Corey Conners is among the game’s best iron players, ranking fourth on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach in 2024. Paired with a steady driver like Sungjae, they’d complement each other well. Both Corey Conners and Sungjae Im should be among the best performers on the International side. Regardless of pairings, both should feature prominently in foursomes.
Final Thoughts
Hide the weakest players in four-ball sessions, maximize elite iron players, and mix up skill sets across pairings for both four-ball and foursomes. If the captain does nothing else, that would put each team in a position to succeed.
Realistically, the International side faces tough sledding this week. The United States has a much more talented roster, as they typically do. The case for the International side is that the Americans never fail to trip over themselves when it comes to decision-making. Should the Americans make a few unforced errors on paper and struggle with their on-course execution, perhaps the Internationals can get hot and steal a win. I do think the chances of that happening are lower than 30% though.
And lastly, for the readers eager to translate this information into their own strategies for future Ryder Cup-style buddies matches: concentrate on predictable scoring factors like driving distance, hazard avoidance, and iron play. If your friend absolutely sprays the ball off the tee, perhaps you don’t want them hitting multiple tee shots where there is out of bounds or a water hazard in play.
Please do not spend too much time thinking about where putting fits into the equation. Configure your strategy in a way that gives a bad putter a three-footer for par rather than leaving an excellent putter with a 24-footer for bogey. Remember this during some of the Mackenzie Hughes discourse this week!
This piece originally appeared in the Fried Egg Golf newsletter. Subscribe for free and receive golf news and insight every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.
