Talk about snapping back to reality: the PGA Tour heads to Minnesota for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities this week. The field is not very strong, so this is a perfect opportunity for players to get some much-needed FedEx Cup points or change their career with a win.
TPC Twin Cities is a fairly straightforward golf course that has plenty of water and gives up birdies by the bunches to strong ball-striking. The most important metric to look at this week is iron play, as success in that metric has one of the highest correlations to success of any event on tour.
Let’s take a look at three players to target:
Brendan Steele $8,300
Brendan (!!!) Steele is currently on a hot streak and his price can’t catch up to his current form. He has made his last seven cuts, including three top 13-finishes, each of which came in one of the top 10 strongest fields of the year. Steele leads the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and is eighth in approach. He has just been held back by a subpar short game. In his past three events, he has gained over 29 strokes ball-striking (Off-the-Tee plus Approach). That’s almost 2.5 strokes better per round than field average! If he brings any semblance of that ball-striking to TPC Twin Cities, he will contend.
Adam Svensson $7,600
This is confusingly low price for Svensson. He is 35/1 to win this event, which is a similar price to players in the mid-$8,000 range, like J.T. Poston. Svensson has made his last seven cuts, including top 25 in each of his past four starts. This run was highlighted by a sixth-place finish at Barbasol Championship. He is the third-ranked player overall in my data model: second in birdies, seventh in approach, and 13th in putting. There is a very good chance he improves on his 15th-place finish in his only appearance at this event
Joohyung (Tom) Kim $7,300
First of all, no, I didn’t just put a “Tom” in this article just to appease Andy and Brendan. Honestly, this is one of the biggest mispricings I have ever seen by DraftKings! Kim is the 40th-ranked player in the world, which makes him the fourth highest ranked player in the 3M Open field. Yet he is $7,300? Yes, he is mostly unknown to casual golf fans, but he’s a young talent on a great upward trend. In his past three events, he has finished 47th at the Open, third at the Scottish Open, and 23rd at the U.S. Open. Don’t overthink things this week and take the free square.