Let’s hope you enjoyed that long offseason because the PGA Tour resumes this week with the start of its 2022-23 schedule. The Fortinet Championship kicks off the fall slate and, once again, finds itself in an odd position. The field consists mainly of players who qualified via Korn Ferry Tour Finals two weeks back and those who were knocked out of the FedEx Cup playoffs at an early stage a month ago. There’s also a sprinkling of higher-status players using the event as a warmup for next week’s Presidents Cup: Hideki Matsuyama, Max Homa, Corey Conners, Taylor Pendrith, and Cameron Davis.
Silverado Resort and Spa has been the host of this event since 2014. We see a common theme with winners here: above-average approach play combined with a hot putter. Let’s look at three players who might fit that mold:
Max Homa $10,500
Homa is the best player in this week’s Fortinet Championship field when you take into account current form, course fit, and recent metrics. He won this event last year and is the only player in Napa who is top 20 in both approach and putting. He is the clear No. 1 in my stat model: top seven off the tee as well as in birdies, par-5 scoring, and putting. Don’t overthink things this week. I expect Homa to contend once again as he builds momentum toward his Presidents Cup debut.
Mark Hubbard $7,300
As always, Mark Hubbard is flying under the radar. He isn’t flashy but gets the job done. Hubbard is one of only six players to rank top 35 in approach and putting, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he has finished 16th or better in two of the last three years at the Fortinet Championship. $7,300 is just too cheap for a player who ranks seventh in my data model and has contended multiple times in 2022.
Adam Svensson $7,200
Svensson, like Hubbard, is an above-average player in this field but not priced as such. Also like Hubbard, he is one of six players to rank top 35 in approach and putting. Svensson is second in birdies, which helps in DraftKings scoring. He ranks 10th in my data model and made the cut in both of his appearances at this event. $7,200 is too low.