by Apologies in advance if this feels like a less-polished-than-usual version of my weekly professional golf update. I’m on-site at the Players Championship this week, taking in TPC Sawgrass in person for the first time. My initial reaction to the golf course was that it would drastically benefit from being presented much more ruggedly, closer to how it played back in its tournament debut. So within that spirit, perhaps a less-polished article is more palatable anyway.
Tiering the Best Players in the World
The best professional golfers in the world currently stack up as follows:
A few notes:
Putting Xander Schauffele any lower than the third tier seems like it would be disrespectful, given his success in 2024. So I kept him in the third tier. But as Xander works his way back from injury, expectations should be tempered. He shouldn’t be expected to contend against strong fields. Xander could ascend as he sharpens his game over the next few weeks, but I’d be shocked and thoroughly impressed to see him in the mix at the Players Championship.
Relatedly, Rory McIlroy is 2-3 putts from having won four times in his last nine starts. In the fallout of Schauffele’s injury, Rory is pretty clearly the second-best golfer in the world right now, but I’d listen to an argument for Collin Morikawa.
I know, I know. Many of you think leaving Brooks Koepka off this graphic is ridiculous and you can’t wait to throw this back in my face if he wins a major this year. He definitely could! So could a lot of golfers who aren’t on this graphic. But Koepka is not consistently performing at a level that suggests he has much win equity in a major, as of now. There are way too many T-25 and T-45 finishes on LIV over the last 12 months and not nearly enough top fives. Brooks doesn’t belong in this graphic.
Player Spotlight
I’ve been doing some reflecting since Russell Henley won the Arnold Palmer Invitational last weekend. Whenever a player wins, it’s always easy to retroactively write an explainer piece on why they won and spin up a cute narrative that passes the smell test. Prediction-oriented analysis is much more difficult and, frankly, more interesting.
In Monday’s Fried Egg Golf Newsletter, I wrote about how winning follows consistency. The best indication that someone is ready to win is that they are consistently playing at a high level, giving themselves ample opportunities in the heat of battle. Frequently, when players come up short in those situations, they are labelled “losers.” They lack a “clutch gene” or “throw up on themselves” when they get into the mix. And to be clear, I believe there are golfers who struggle under pressure. Whether or not that’s actually predictive, though, and whether you should expect those players to crumble in future situations is a different question.
So who is the next Schauffele? Or the next Henley? I’m not talking about someone who will necessarily rise to the level of Xander, who won two major championships last year. But which player is going to pick off a big golf tournament soon and dispel the narrative that they cannot win a meaningful golf tournament?
I think Tommy Fleetwood is the clear answer.
Fleetwood posted his first top-five finish in a major championship at the 2017 U.S. Open at Erin Hills. Inclusive of Erin Hills, Fleetwood has seven top-five finishes in major championships since then. Here is the complete list of golfers with as many top fives as Tommy Lad over that time frame:
- Brooks Koepka (11)
- Rory McIlroy (9)
- Jon Rahm (8)
- Xander Schauffele (8)
- Collin Morikawa (7)
- Tommy Fleetwood (7)
Only one non-major champion in that group! To win, you have to get yourself in the mix and demonstrate consistent, high-level play in strong-fielded golf tournaments. Tommy has done that. Since missing the cut in last year’s Open Championship – his only missed cut in a major in 2024 –Tommy has finished no worse than T-22 across his last 13 starts on the DP World Tour and PGA Tour. Perhaps most notably, he earned a silver medal during that span at the Olympics at Le Golf National, a golf course that shares characteristics with TPC Sawgrass.
Tommy Fleetwood is my pick to win this week’s Players Championship.
Do I like his chances more than Scottie’s? Ok, no. But outside of Scottie, I think Fleetwood’s chances of contending are about as strong as anyone’s. He is exceptionally well-rounded, stripes his irons, and can flight shots when the Florida winds kick up. One of his primary deficiencies is that he has less speed off the tee than many other top players in the world. At TPC Sawgrass, that’s less of an issue than at other venues. You have to keep the ball on line and in play. This is not a golf course to launch rockets into the sky, especially when the wind is a factor.
The Players Championship is a notoriously difficult tournament to predict, but I expect Tommy to have a strong showing this week. Beyond the Players, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tommy take down a big golf tournament at some point in 2025.
Reader-Submitted Question
Reader: Can we get a TPC Sawgrass breakdown?
Answer: I don’t think I can do that succinctly, though I’ll point you to this week’s episode of Garrett Morrison’s Designing Golf podcast in which we discussed TPC Sawgrass in detail. I explained why short game is important, and in my opinion, that explanation is crucial to understanding the intersection between course management and the skills tested at specific golf courses, not just TPC Sawgrass.
One other insightful tidbit I’d offer is some analysis I did for a very good professional golfer in the leadup to a recent Players Championship. When analyzing his track record at TPC Sawgrass, his underperformance on the sixth hole stood out instantly. In talking through his off-the-tee strategy, it was clear that he was far too concerned with hunting an advantageous angle with his tee shots. I know, angles – a contentious topic.
The reality, as you may already know if you are plugged into course management discourse, is that good angles provide very little benefit. If, in pursuit of hunting angles, you bring hazards into your range of outcomes with your intended target, the penalty associated with finding those hazards dwarfs the potential benefit of a good angle.
On the sixth hole at Sawgrass, trees start to encroach upon the right side of the green, goading some golfers into challenging the left side of the fairway, especially to a right pin. Resist that temptation. Finding the left side of the fairway may marginally lower your expected score to a right pin; however, the penalty associated with finding the left-hand fairway bunker outweighs the potential marginal benefit of successfully executing the angle-hunting tee shot. I dug up one of the tables I’d shown to this player:
From that discussion onwards, he prioritized hitting the center of the fairway and didn’t worry about his angle. His results drastically improved.
If this type of insight bums you out, I understand the perspective from which you are coming. As someone who loves strategic architecture and appreciates optionality, “aim down the center of the fairway with a tight-dispersion shot type” isn’t the most intellectually engaging way to play golf or watch high-level professionals play golf. That doesn’t negate the truth, which is that deploying this strategy is the optimal way to score far more often than not.
It’s also why I’m a huge proponent of using centerline hazards to test elite golfers, with different risk-reward profiles associated with each side of the hazard. I believe centerline hazards will become a much more prominent feature in the future of championship golf architecture. The center of the fairway tends to be your target? Fine, now it isn’t. Make a decision.
Nonetheless, I still greatly appreciate the test that is TPC Sawgrass. Players must drive the ball straight, execute precise iron shots away from penalty areas, be tidy around the greens, and often battle wind. While the golf course may not represent the epitome of strategy, or present as ruggedly and challenging as it should, this is one of the best and most exciting tests of the year.
I’m looking forward to watching who can pass the test this time around.
