This week the PGA Tour jumps islands in Hawaii and heads to Waialae Country Club for the Sony Open. It is the first full field event of 2023. Waialae could not be more different than Kapalua’s Plantation Course, which featured massive fairways and large undulating greens. This week we have narrow, tree-lined fairways that place an emphasis on accuracy over distance off the tee. The greens here are smaller with much less undulation.

So what does it take to win here? It’s pretty simple: keep it in play off the tee, be above average with short-to-mid irons, and catch a hot putter for the week. Let’s take a look at three players to target this week:

Tom Kim $10,500

It’s amazing how things can change in a year. Tom Kim has gone from a complete unknown to a star in the making, and for good reason. He is the highest ranked player in this field (14th). He has finished 13th or better in eight of his last ten events, and that includes two wins. He played well last week finishing 5th, yet lost strokes putting. This week’s course should suit him perfectly. He is the No. 1 ranked player in my model this week. He is one of only three players in the field to rank top 10 in both approach and accuracy off the tee. He also ranks second in proximity from 150-200 yards and fifth in birdies. If his putter cooperates, he will be in contention for this third PGA Tour title come Sunday.

Corey Conners $9,600

Similar to Kim, Conners ranks top 10 in approach and driving accuracy. He has been a bad putter historically, losing about one stroke per event to the field on the greens. However, he has putted drastically better at the Sony Open. In his four starts, he has gained strokes putting each time, averaging 3.5 strokes gained per event. This is a crazy split!!!! If Conners can gain any strokes putting this week, he will have a chance to record his fourth consecutive top-12 finish in this event.

Cameron Davis $8,500

This price doesn’t make any sense to me. He ranks third in my data model this week. He ranks first in birdies, fourth in proximity from 150-200 yards, 10th on approach, and top 30 off the tee, putting, and around the green. His only weakness is inaccuracy off the tee but for as long as he hits it, he can throttle back with 3-wood or long iron on some of the tight holes here to find the fairway. At $8,500, he provides elite consistency as he has only missed two cuts since The Players last year. During that time, he has nine top-16 finishes. He has finished 31st or better in each of his last three appearances at the Sony. Look for him to add another high finish this week.