I have already covered a few favorites and some longshots for this week’s US Open at The Country Club, so now it’s time to dig into the best bets to try and earn ourselves a little bit of extra spending cash.
Make the Cut Parlay: Rahm/Schauffele/Morikawa +121 (Fanduel)
The cut for the U.S. Open is the top 60 and ties, which is smaller than a normal week on the PGA Tour. However, in the U.S. Open, the cream rises to the top more often as scoring is more dependent on ballstriking and patience compared to birdie fests that we have been accustomed to weekly on tour. Historically, we have very good precedents for these three players making the cut in majors: Rahm 13 of last 14, Schauffele 17 of last 20, Morikawa 8 of last 9. We also have to consider the weather. The current forecast calls for much better scoring Thursday morning compared to the afternoon wave due to heavy afternoon winds. Friday’s weather looks similar regardless of wave. As of now, I am projecting a 1.5-shot advantage for those in the morning wave in round one, which raises chances to make the cut significantly. Additionally, these three players are some of the best fits for The Country Club, as they all are top 10 in driving efficiency and top 20 in approach. That’s the perfect combination for steady play and to make the cut.
Hideki Matsuyama Top Japanese Player -150 (BetMGM)
Matsuyama is on the good side of the weather draw and is up against some inferior competition in this market: Rikuya Hoshino, Keita Nakajima, Jinichiro Kozuma, Satoshi Kodaira, Daijiro Izumida and Tomoyaso Sugiyama. His consistency in majors and his great ballstriking are what provides us the value. He has made the cut in 30 of his last 35 majors, and 29 of those 30 made cuts resulted in a top-40 finish (22 top-25 finishes). With the group of players that he is up against, another consistent finish should do the job and cash this bet.
Cameron Young to Make the Cut -190 (DraftKings)
Cameron Young continues to be undervalued in betting markets. He has five top 3 finishes this season!!! He ranks 2nd in strokes gained off the tee and is above average in every other statistical category. Young has only missed two cuts in his last 13 events (The Players and The Masters, both of which are extremely tough on rookies historically). He also is on the correct side of the expected weather draw. We add all that up and Young provides great value at -190 as he should be closer to -300 to make the cut this week.
New Major Winner: No -110 (Barstool/BetRivers)
The U.S. Open historically is the event that has the fewest surprise winners. Players need to have elite ballstriking and an elite mental game to capture this championship. If we take a look at the players who have already won a major, it looks very likely that one of them wins again this week. The top four players on the odds board (McIlroy, Thomas, Rahm, Scheffler) are all major winners. We also have Spieth, Morikawa, Lowry, Koepka, DJ and Matsuyama as major winners. On the other side, we need to avoid a darkhorse winner or a victory from Smith, Cantlay, Schauffele, Zalatoris, Fitzpatrick, Burns, Finau, Hovland, etc. Most of those guys have holes in their games which will prevent them from winning this U.S. Open as their maiden major.