Welcome to October! We have a fantastic links event on the DP World Tour (with an undercard of potential dealmaking), a PGA Tour debut to monitor at the Sanderson, and some final Presidents Cup takes centering around the danger of misinterpreting statistical data. Let’s dive in!

Yasir Takes on Jay

The further we move beyond the 2024 Tour Championship, the more obvious it becomes that the PGA Tour product is in a bad state. However, the silver lining is that the conclusion of the ‘24 PGA Tour regular season has opened the door to a refreshing stretch of tournaments in Europe, including this week’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. With rounds at Kingsbarns, Carnoustie, and, of course, the Old Course, the DP World Tour delivers once again in the venue category. The field isn’t too shabby either. With Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, Brooks Koepka, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry and a handful of other high-profile players all set to tee off on Thursday, the Dunhill should deliver a delightful four days of golf.

A fun Game within the Game this week is the matchup between Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm. Both players have been in strong form leading up to this tournament, and each must feel like the best player in the field. Markets tend to do the best job of establishing where the most talented players in the world stack up against one another, though. And markets make Jon Rahm a small favorite over Rory McIlroy this week.

My favorite matchup at the Dunhill is not between professional competitors, but rather between Yasir Al-Rumayyan and Jay Monahan, who are competing in the amateur competition and paired together for the first round. From what I understand, Jay Monahan carries a lower handicap, but links golf is strategic, which favors Al-Rumayyan.

And in case you were wondering, Al-Rumayyan has been registered under his real name this year, unlike last year when he was listed as “Andrew Waterman” until the evening before competition – an odd occurrence to reflect upon a year later!

A Debut to Watch at the Sanderson

On a less architecturally engaging front, the PGA Tour’s Sanderson Farms Championship kicks off this week at Mississippi’s Country Club of Jackson. Keith Mitchell is either the tournament favorite or co-favorite depending on where you look, both a testament to Mitchell’s continued ball-striking excellence in 2024 and the relative weakness of this field compared to most regular-season PGA Tour events.

One exciting name to keep an eye on at the Sanderson: Matt McCarty. The Santa Clara graduate makes his PGA Tour debut this week, opting out of the Korn Ferry Finals after securing the top spot in the KFT rankings with his recent hot run of form. In his last nine starts on the Korn Ferry Tour, McCarty has earned three wins and seven top-10 finishes.

Despite not having many top PGA Tour players, the Sanderson Farms field is a big jump up from the competition McCarty has seen this year on the Korn Ferry Tour. I’m eager to see if the 26-year-old can take his game to the next level starting this week, especially on a golf course that favors long hitters – not the ideal fit for his statistical profile.

For a deeper dive into McCarty’s journey and decisions he’s navigated over the past couple of months, I highly recommend Ryan French’s recent article on Monday Q.

Where Numbers Lead Us Astray

With some distance from the Presidents Cup and its many reactions and overreactions, I want to highlight one part of the discourse that may benefit from additional context.

Strokes gained data is often the best publicly available data. It is a far better measure of performance than, for example, citing birdies and bogeys. While strokes gained is one of the best publicly available measures of player performance, it does still have significant shortcomings, even in traditional full-field stroke play events. Those shortcomings are further amplified in unique events like the Presidents Cup. For instance, in formats such as Saturday foursomes, there are very few golf balls in play, which results in a noisy data set. Conceded and/or picked up putts also can skew the data.

When thinking about strokes gained, it’s important to remember that each hole’s scoring average is always the starting point. But with so few golfers on the course, those scoring averages are very sensitive, especially to variables like penalty shots or conceded putts. A prime example: on the ninth hole during Saturday foursomes, Max Homa hit a chip shot to 7.5 feet, but because his opponents made birdie, Homa’s partner Brian Harman did not attempt his par putt. Had Harman either made or missed the putt, it would have influenced not just his own strokes gained numbers but the numbers of other players in the field no matter what strokes gained methodology you employ.

Or consider a golfer attempting to hole a chip shot in fourballs because their partner is in good position or because their opponent has an easy birdie opportunity. Suppose he hits the chip shot 15 feet past the hole trying to hole it. Yes, there is a strong argument to be made that if you want to hole a shot you still shouldn’t hit it overly aggressively, but that’s beside the point. The point is that those kinds of shots distort strokes gained numbers, an already noisy stat when there are so few golfers on the course.

I’m not saying dismiss strokes gained statistics entirely in team competitions. It remains a valuable statistic when interpreted thoughtfully. But it is not perfect and often used as the basis for social media shouting.

And as a broader lesson, I would argue that anyone who is interested in golf statistics should dig into their limitations. That’s just as important as understanding the numbers themselves.

This piece originally appeared in the Fried Egg Golf newsletter. Subscribe for free and receive golf news and insight every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.