by Fresh off the Masters, the PGA Tour heads to Harbour Town for what feels like the 10th designated event of 2023 already. This is a brutal schedule spot for the top players in the world. They have had a very busy schedule the last two months and now have to play a week after a grueling Masters event filled with rain, wind, and weather delays. The top players are going to be tired and burnt out, which makes it a tough week for fantasy and betting purposes. Will we really get top of the line performances from players such as Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler? We have to try to figure out who is rested, who is motivated to perform, and who is just showing up to stay eligible for the PIP program. With that being said, let’s take a look at what is needed to succeed at this historic Hilton Head stop.
Harbour Town is unlike most courses on Tour as it puts a much higher emphasis on accuracy over distance. The short, somewhat claustrophobic course really forces a player to think his way around the course. This allows a lot more players to have a better chance to contend this week compared to a normal week on Tour that favors more of the bomb-and-gouge technique. Let’s take a look at a few players to target this week:
Collin Morikawa $10,000
Morikawa is someone who really wants to be at this event as he has played it each of the last three years, which included a seventh-place finish in 2021. When you think about accuracy and precision, Morikawa is one of the first players to come to mind. He leads the field in accuracy off the tee and is second in approach. That’s a deadly combination anywhere, but especially at Harbour Town. I understand his chipping and putting are weaknesses but we have seen plenty of champions of this event be just field average in those metrics. Last week’s 10th place finish at Augusta National was his fifth finish of 13th or better in eight starts in 2023. His game is trending in the right direction and I look for him to break his winless drought soon.
Tom Kim $8,500
How are we getting such a cheap price tag on someone who has won multiple times on Tour in the last eight months and is going to be a future superstar? This course is absolutely perfect for Tom the Tank. He is a cheaper version of Morikawa as he ranks top ten in both accuracy off the tee and approach. Similar to Morikawa, his short game can at times hold him back from success. Kim finished 16th last week, which is a great result for a debut appearance at Augusta. He now heads to a course that is much more suited to his game and presents a great chance to add another win under his belt.
Tom Hoge $7,400
This price confuses me this week. Hoge, the 27th ranked player in the world, already has a 14th and two third place finishes in designated events in 2023. We are getting a price discount after a missed cut last week at The Masters. But we have historically seen plenty of players bounce back after not having a great Masters result (such as Jordan Spieth winning this event last year). Hoge leads the field in approach and is 21st in driving accuracy. If we want to win one of those big tournaments on DraftKings we are going to have to have upside in some of our lower priced players and Hoge clearly has that with a win at Pebble Beach in 2022 and ranking top 10 in birdie rate.
