The streak has finally ended with our first losing week of 2024 at the Cognizant. We knew it would be impossible to profit every week, so it’s time for a bounceback at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. This is another signature event, and with only 69 players in the field the betting markets are a bit tricky.

What is needed for success this week:

  • Above-average off the tee (distance preferred)
  • Above-average on approach (especially from 200+ yards)

Let’s take a look at three wagers that fit the profile:

Rory McIlroy Top 10 +105

Rory leads the field off the tee and is also second in approach from 200+ yards. Given his skills, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he hasn’t finished worse than 13th here in the last seven years, a stretch that includes six top 10s. He’s been a bit sloppy in his starts on the PGA Tour this year, leading many people to believe he isn’t playing that well. But these sloppy mistakes are easily rectifiable, and he is very likely to return to the form that saw him finish second and first in back-to-back events on the DP World Tour to start 2024.

Ludvig Åberg Top 20 -110

We continue the theme of long, elite drivers with solid long iron games by taking a look at Ludvig Åberg. He ranks sixth off the tee and 11th in approach from 200+ yards. One of the more overlooked things for Åberg this week: his familiarity with Bay Hill. All of the events he has played on Tour so far in his career have been his first time playing those courses. This is going to be his second time playing the API, having finished 26th last year. He has finished top 20 in 11 of his last 13 events. The only exceptions were the two Hawaii events to start 2024, which were both new to him and also poor fits for his game. Look for Åberg to linger on the front page of the leaderboard this week.

Cameron Young Top 20 +100

Young ranks fourth off the tee and sixth on approach from 200+ yards. He has finished at worst 13th in each of his two appearances at Bay Hill. He has cashed top-20 tickets in his last three events, highlighted by a fourth-place finish at the Cognizant. Young should have a very good chance to do so again this week.