Tiering the 2025 Masters Contenders

Masters week is here! I’m going to keep the weekly update short today. There’s a lot of Masters content you should check out on our site, like today’s newsletter or my Q&A with 2018 Masters champion Patrick Reed.

Today’s weekly update includes how I’m looking at the contenders for the 2025 Masters and a few words of appreciation for Augusta National.

Tiering the Masters Contenders

A few notes:

At some point entering the week, I got relatively close to considering Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy a coin flip, or close to it. I’ve ultimately landed on Scottie having an appreciably better chance of winning than Rory, despite liking Rory’s chances. Scottie just loves this place, and it’s tremendously well-suited for him. He’s been in the lead or within three of the lead after nine of the 20 rounds he’s played at the Masters. Only Dustin Johnson (8), Jon Rahm (8), and Brooks Koepka (7) have been within three of the lead more than five times over the same time frame. I still like Rory’s chances, but I like Scottie’s more.

As I wrote in today’s Fried Egg Golf newsletter, I really like Justin Thomas’ chances. One of the best iron players in the world who has speed off the tee and a magical short game? His history is a bit of a mixed bag, but I’m in on JT this week.

Some of you think it’s ridiculous that Tommy Fleetwood is on here. And you can’t believe I like his chances more than Joaquin Niemann’s. “Tommy can’t even win a PGA Tour event!” I believe that Tommy can win. He checks most of the boxes. I believe it can happen.

Player Spotlight: Augusta National

Augusta National is the star of the show this week. Rarely in professional golf does a venue transcend the starpower of the field. Augusta National is the best player in this field for the 89th time in a row.

My three criteria for evaluating a championship golf test are that the course:

1. ‍Imposes a penalty on a small miss and a steep penalty on a wide miss
2. Requires players to hit non-stock shots
3. Requires control of the ball once the ball hits the ground

Augusta National is the only golf course in the world that satisfies all three criteria, at least of courses that are part of the regular professional golf calendar. Others that once satisfied all three criteria (i.e. St. Andrews) no longer do. Technology has outpaced every physical space on the planet. Given its property and the depth of its wallet, Augusta is as free from physical constraints as any place on Earth. And by a significant margin. Dry, bouncy conditions are necessary for all three of the above criteria to be satisfied. And to that end, Augusta National is equipped with a SubAir system, bringing the ground to life as much as nature allows.

This is a wide golf course, full of severe contours, brilliant green complexes, and massive trees that both punish wayward misses and force shots to travel with the curvature the designers intended. Scottie Scheffler spoke eloquently about how this golf course satisfies my first piece of criteria above at the six-minute mark of his pre-tournament press conference. Hit a shot a little bit offline, and you have a little bit of a problem. Hit a shot way offline, and you have a much more significant problem.

‍

I encourage you to watch this year’s tournament with those three criteria in mind and consider how the design and resources of Augusta National facilitate those criteria. Augusta National is truly a special golf course, and it’s incredibly fun that we get to watch the best players in the world compete here every year. What shouldn’t get lost in all of the joys of this week is how integral the design of ANGC is to the success of this tournament. Augusta is a shining example each year that design matters.

Reader-Submitted Question

Reader: Top five holes at Augusta?

Answer: There’s no right answer to this question. There are only wrong answers, like including No. 7 anywhere near the top five. That’s the worst hole on the golf course. No. 18 is near the bottom as well.

Here is my top five, subject to change:

No. 13 — Azalea

‍

No. 5 — Magnolia

No. 1 — Tea Olive

No. 3 — Flowering Peach

No. 12 — Golden Bell

My only note is that some of you will argue that I have No. 1 way too high. I’ll die on the hill that No. 1 is one of the best – if not the best – opening holes in golf. Inviting tee shot that’s pretty manageable with a 3-wood, but if you get offline or overly-aggressive off the tee, you can run into trouble very quickly. Amazing green complex. Very good golf hole!

Ok, that’s all for this week. Have a question you’d like me to answer next week? Email me at joseph@thefriedegg.com.