The streak continues!!!! These picks have now seen eight consecutive weeks of profit, thanks to top-20 finishes by Stephan Jaeger (+135) and Brandon Wu (+210) in Mexico.

This week the Tour begins the Florida Swing at PGA National for the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches. What a long title for an event that used to be known by one word: Honda.

PGA National is an extremely challenging course. Trouble lurks on almost every shot, especially in the Bear Trap (holes 15 through 17).

What is needed for success this week:

  • Above-average on approach (especially from 175-200 yards)
  • Patience and ability to avoid the big number

Let’s take a look at three wagers:

Eric Cole Top 40 -170

Eric Cole has only missed the cut once in his last 22 events. In those 22 starts, he’s had a top-40 finish 18 times. Many of those events came on courses that didn’t suit his game that well. This week Cole plays a course that fits his game perfectly, and one that he is very familiar with dating back to his mini-tour days. Cole ranks first in my course model, ahead of even Rory McIlroy this week. Cole ranks third in approach overall, and first in approach from 175-200 yards. His game is predicated on avoiding the big number and plodding away with consistent scores. Cole’s first glimpse of contention on the PGA Tour came here last year. He has a very good chance of doing that again this week.

(Note: if you do not have access to top-40 odds at any of your sportsbooks, an equivalent pricing for a top-20 finish would be +150, and is playable.)

Adam Svensson Top 40 +100

Svensson is a cheaper version of Eric Cole. He is an excellent iron player, ranking tenth in approach overall, and fifth from 175-200 yards. He has finished inside the top 40 in 12 of his last 17 events. A lot of those came on courses that don’t suit him as well as PGA National, where Svensson won Q School back in 2015. He comes into this event off a top-10 finish at the Genesis. Look for him to have a chance to contend this week.

(Note: if you do not have access to top-40 odds at any of your sportsbooks, an equivalent pricing for a top 20 would be +200, and is playable.)

Hole-in-One: NO -170

-170 odds translates into a 62.96% chance of there not being a hole-in-one this week. I think the number should be much higher than that. Why? Well, both No. 5 (217 yards) and No. 7 (226 yards) will see players hitting mid to long irons into difficult greens, neither of which are really conducive to hole-outs. On the back nine, both par threes are part of the Bear Trap. Every year we see players playing away from those pins most days in an effort to avoid the water that lurks short and to the right of both greens.