If I had to distill the top data-driven insights from the ShotLink era down to two bullet points, I’d probably go with:

  • Distance is a massive, reliable advantage
  • Optimizing scoring is more about disaster avoidance than executing shots to perfection

These two bullet points explain many modern golf trends. In pursuit of adherence to these two concepts, today’s professional golfers spend significant amounts of time both speed training and developing stock, trusted, tight-dispersion shots that they can aim down the safe side of fairways when there is trouble on the opposing side.

The perfect example of the importance of these two bullets: Rory McIlroy. He is one of the longest hitters in men’s professional golf, routinely ripping drives past every competitor and gaining a significant advantage on the field. He also tends to make a plethora of careless unforced errors, bringing fields right back into contention.

This past week at the DP World Tour’s Dubai Invitational, McIlroy found a water hazard five times during the tournament. He also three-putted from two feet during his final nine. Oh, and he finished just one stroke behind the winner, Tommy Fleetwood.

It was the quintessential start to the calendar year for McIlroy, serving as both a window into his unparalleled talent and as a jarring reminder of what repeatedly holds him back from hoisting more trophies.

When 99% of professional golfers finish runner-up in their calendar year debut, the narrative is “Player X is showing signs of having a strong upcoming year.” That’s not the takeaway from McIlroy’s Dubai Invitational, which is actually a testament to his standing in professional golf. Rory is expected to win. Full stop.

Rory’s chances of capturing his first major since 2014 don’t hinge on how many 7-irons he stuffs to five feet from 186 yards. Rather, per usual, it’ll be about his ability to limit the big misses. When I think about Rory’s costliest moments in recent major championships, I think about shots like the wedge he hit on No. 2 at Oak Hill on Sunday, where he missed the green and short-sided himself. I think about the wedge he hit into No. 14 at LACC in the final round, leading to another bogey from the fairway in a huge spot.

McIlroy’s issue is rarely a lack of brilliant moments. It’s the recurrence of head-scratching moments. He had a handful of head scratchers this week, and he lost by one. It was a movie we’ve all seen before.

I like Rory’s chances of winning a major in 2024, especially at Valhalla. My concerns, as always, are the avoidable mistakes like those he made this weekend in Dubai. Eliminating that kind of blunder is what McIlroy needs to do in order to once again post dominant performances at major championships.

This piece originally appeared in the Fried Egg Golf newsletter. Subscribe for free and receive golf news and insight every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.