Betting golf is not actually this easy, but we are still on a hot streak with profit each of the first seven weeks of the season. That’s thanks to top-20 finishes at Riviera by Cantlay (-130) and Homa (-120).

This week the Tour heads south of the border for the Mexico Open at Vidanta. This 132 player field is the weakest we have seen so far in 2024.

What is needed for success this week:

  • Above average length off-the-tee
  • Above average on approach (especially from 200+ yards)
  • Above average putting splits between slower paspalum greens and faster bent/bermuda greens normally seen on Tour

So with that in mind, let’s take a look at three wagers:

Tony Finau Top 10 +110

Normally I don’t play many top 10 wagers. They’re very difficult to win. But in this instance, Finau is the best player in the field by a good margin. It also doesn’t hurt that he comes into this event striking the ball tremendously but having problems with the flatstick. Finau ranks fourth in approach overall, fifth in approach from 200+ yards, and has the ability to hit it long off the tee when needed. Finau also has one of the wildest putting splits on Tour, ranking 22nd on the slower paspalum greens compared to 132nd on non-paspalum greens (bent, bermuda, poa, etc). Now, sure, only a handful of courses on Tour have these slower greens. Traditionally, though, we have seen below-average putters improve on paspalum greens. So I guess it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Finau has finished second and first here in his two appearances.

Stephan Jaeger Top 20 +135

Jaeger is the model of consistency on the PGA Tour, not missing a cut in his last 21 events. We are getting a little bit of a reduced price on him this week because of his 71st-place finish at Pebble Beach, his last start. Prior to that, though, Jaeger nearly won the Farmers against a very strong field. He ranks second in my data model this week, behind only Finau. And for good reason: he ranks top-15 in approach overall, approach from 200+ yards, off-the-tee, and driving distance. Nearly all of his 21 consecutive cuts came in fields that were much stronger than this. If he plays even close to decent, he will have a chance to finish top-20 for the third straight year in this event.

Brandon Wu Top 20 +210

Brandon Wu is very similar to Tony Finau this week. He ranks 11th overall on approach, and 14th on approach from 200+ yards. He ranks 104th in putting on non-paspalum greens, but first on paspalum greens. That is not a typo!!! So it makes sense that Wu has finished top-three each of the last two years of this event. He has played fairly consistently over the last six months, making the cut in 10 of his last 12 events. Look for Wu to have a chance at another strong finish this week.