The Tour completes the Florida Swing this week with the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort. This is not your normal Florida golf course, as it has thick rough and plays more like many courses in Georgia and the Carolinas. Even though this course is vastly different from TPC Sawgrass, the skills required to succeed are very similar. 

Keys for success this week:

  • Ability to keep the ball in play off the tee, oftentimes with less than driver. You need to be able to stay out of the rough to have the best chance to hold these firm greens.
  • Elite iron play (especially from 175-200 yards)

Let’s take a look at three top-20 wagers:

Sam Burns Top 20 -125 

Five. That’s the number of players in total that have beaten Sam Burns at this event the last three years. He comes into this week in great form, including top-ten finishes in four of his last six events.

Justin Thomas Top 20 -115

Thomas has finished 18th or better in five of his six appearances at this event, including each of the last three years. Even though he missed the cut last week at the Players, it appears that his approach game has returned to pre-2023 form. He has been above his long-term career average in strokes gained approach in all but one of his six events in 2024. If he can bring that level of iron play once again this week, he should be able to record his seventh top-20 finish in his last nine events.

Samuel Ryder Top 20 +330

Ryder makes for a great dark horse pick this week. He comes into this event off a 16th-place finish at The Players and a 21st at the Cognizant. He also had a similar result at the Valspar last year, finishing 19th. Ryder’s game is a great fit for the Copperhead course as he ranks fourth overall in approach, including second from 175-200 yards. He’s also more accurate than he is long off the tee. +330 is way too big of a number for a player who should have a good chance at another high finish.