This week we have a unique event on the PGA Tour. The Zurich Classic consists of 80 two-man teams playing best ball in rounds one and three and alternate shot in rounds two and four. After 36 holes the field is cut to the top-33 teams and ties. Historically, the teams who have succeeded at this event are the ones whose games pair well together while displaying consistent ball-striking.
In a week like this, sportsbooks often have problems knowing how to accurately price teams or bets. This means we can find a few edges to make money. Our normal top-20 wagers are a bit more like top-40 wagers this week thanks to the 80-team field, so they’re a bit easier to cash.
Here are three teams to target:
Nick Taylor & Adam Hadwin Top 20 -120
This very well could be a preview of a Presidents Cup pairing later this year under Captain Mike Weir. Hadwin and Taylor are very consistent players who complement each other very well and are comfortable with each other on the course. This is one of the few pairings in the event to feature two players ranked inside the top 50 in the world. Hadwin has three top-six finishes already in 2024, while Taylor won at TPC Scottsdale. They finished second last year after opening with a substandard 66 in best ball in round one. Look for this team to excel in alternate shot and make enough birdies in best ball to contend.
Matt Fitzpatrick & Alex Fitzpatrick Top 20 -105
The brothers first paired up in this event last year, finishing 19th. They excelled in the best ball format at -20 (second overall in best ball) but struggled in alternate shot at +1. The struggle in alternate shot was to be expected. That’s especially true for Alex, considering a win gets him a Tour card, while a top-five finish earns him a start in the next event. One year later, Alex Fitzpatrick is a completely different player. He is now ranked 147th in the world and has handled the pressure well in much more prominent events, including the 2023 Open. Alex has played well on the DP World Tour so far this season and finished 23rd in Punta Cana. We already know Matt is great in team golf formats, and now that his brother is more developed this team could contend this year.
Taylor Moore & Matthew Nesmith Top 20 +140
Taylor Moore is one of the more underrated players on the PGA Tour right now. He ranks 54th in the world and hasn’t missed a cut since the 2023 Open. Now, I know his partner Matthew Nesmith hasn’t played that great in 2024. But Nesmith is still a slightly above-average PGA Tour player off the tee and on approach, which is what holds a team together in alternate shot. Combining Nesmith’s ball-striking with Moore’s overall consistency and high birdie rate should give them another shot to contend at an event where they have finished 4th each of the last two years.