The PGA Tour’s Florida Swing continues this week with a signature event at Bay Hill for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. The field consists of only 72 players with a cut down to the top 50 and ties (plus anyone within ten shots of the lead) after 36 holes. This small field makes it a bit more difficult for us to find value betting as there are simply fewer options. But don’t worry, I have a couple of bets that have value this week:

Ludvig Aberg Top 20 -135

I’m going back to the well again this week with Aberg as I still see him undervalued in the market.  His elite ballstriking allows for a crazy level of consistency. In his last 34 events, he has finished in the top 20 in 25 of them, many of which came in full-field events or on courses he has never seen before. Some of those poor finishes came when he was recently sick or when he dealt with a knee injury last year. 

Aberg is now fully healthy and faces a course he will be seeing for the third time now. Bay Hill doesn’t allow a player to get away with bad ballstriking. That plays right into his hands. I expect Ludvig to contend this week and cash for us once again with a top 20 finish.

Hole-in-One: N0 -185

This may not be a fun bet to cheer for, but we are here to make money. There is value this week on betting “No” on a Hole-in-One at -185. Let’s dig into why.

First, there are going to be about 45% fewer par 3 shots compared to a normal week on Tour. Typically, with a full field of 156 players and the standard four par 3s, we see about 1,800 tee shots on par 3s. This leads to a No price typically around +100 most weeks. This week with only 72 players and a cut down to the top 50 players after 36 holes, we should expect to see about 1,000 tee shots on par 3s. Just on pure lack of volume, an argument can be made there is value at -185. But there are more reasons.

Second, Bay Hill has some of the most difficult par 3s on Tour, with all four at 199 yards or longer. Historically, there is only a 9% birdie rate on these holes, which is well below the Tour average for par 3s. This tells us that there are a lot fewer balls that end up close to the hole than an average course on Tour. Hence, there is a less-than-normal chance of a hole-in-one because of distance and expected proximity.

Finally, the forecast calls for potentially heavy winds on multiple days. This will make it harder for players to judge distance and hit an accurate shot. 

All of this adds up to me getting to a fair price around -250 for the “NO” on Hole-in-One this week, so take the value at -185.