Paulie’s Picks: 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge

The Tour makes the trek from Kentucky to Texas this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge at the historic Colonial Country Club. As covered by the Fried Egg team this week, Colonial has undergone a renovation since last year’s event. Gil Hanse made great improvements with regards to bringing back a more rugged aesthetic and helping to make the greens more playable and more visually appealing.

In terms of how Colonial will play for the pros, I don’t see a large difference in terms of skill set required. It still is a course that values accuracy and precision over power and strength. Those who can keep it in play off the tee and are above average with their irons will have the best chance to succeed.

Let’s take a look at three players to target:

Jordan Spieth Top 20 +105

Spieth loves playing in Texas and especially loves playing at Colonial, finishing 14th or better in eight of the last 10 years. He has had an up and down 2024, but the upswings have come at courses on which he traditionally plays well, such as Valero, Kapalua and Phoenix. We saw glimmers of his elite ball-striking last week as Spieth gained strokes off the tee, on approach, and around the green. That was only the second time he has done that in the last 11 months. If he can carry that over to this week, he should be in a good spot to rack up another high finish.

Tony Finau Top 20 +130

In his eight appearances at Colonial, Finau has seven top-34 finishes, including four top 20s. Finau is a model of consistency and should excel against the small, weak field we have this week. He has finished inside the top 20 in six of his last 11 events, many of which featured much stronger fields. His iron play is the best it’s ever been. At the PGA Championship, he gained 9.6 strokes on approach, the second-best performance of his career (trailing only his 9.7 strokes gained at the 2020 3M Open.) On a course that only selectively allows him to use his length, he can still lean on elite iron play to hang around the front page of the leaderboard.

Brian Harman Top 40 -140 (FanDuel)

Harman has finished no worse than 31st in nine of the last 10 years of this event. This really shouldn’t be that surprising, as Harman excels on courses that reward precision and accuracy over brute strength. We are getting a slightly discounted price here because of his recent results, which came at events that suited bombers over plodders like the Wells Fargo and the PGA. We also have to consider the fact that this is only a 132-player field which is missing many of the top stars. Harman rates out as the sixth-best player in this tournament.