Paulie’s Picks: 2025 Valero Texas Open

The PGA Tour stays in Texas this week as it makes the trip once again to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. Similar to last week, there is a certain set of skills that are required to succeed. This is an elite ballstrikers’ paradise. You don’t have to be the longest or the straightest off the tee, but you can’t afford any foul balls that miss the fairway by a large margin (just ask Kevin Na). On approach, players are faced with firm undulating greens that reward great shots and punish mishits. Over the course of four rounds, elite iron players who can keep it in play off the tee usually reign supreme.

Corey Conners Top 20 +100

Conners’ game is firing on all cylinders right now, with top-eight finishes in each of his last three starts. In each start, he has gained strokes individually in each of the four main categories (off the tee, approach, around the green and putting). This is the first time in his career that he has done this in three consecutive events! He now heads to where it all started for him in his career with his maiden victory in 2019, which was repeated in 2023. It’s not often we get a player peaking in their current form visiting their favorite course on Tour. Lock in Conners for a top 20 this week.

Daniel Berger & Ludvig Aberg to Make the Cut -114 (available at Fanduel)

Aberg is the best player in the field and arguably one of the best ballstrikers on the planet. We are getting a slightly cheaper price than expected on him to make the cut this week because he missed the cut at the Players which can often yield quirky results. Since turning pro, Aberg hasn’t missed a cut in the U.S. in a non-major or Players.

Berger has quietly regained his form now that he is fully healthy. He is one of the most consistent players on Tour and has finished in the top 25 in each of his last five events. He ranks above average in each of the four key metrics.

Matt Kuchar Top 20 +400

Now yes, I know Kuchar isn’t the same player he was five or 10 years ago, but hear me out. In his 12 starts at this event, he has made the cut 11 times and finished top 20 seven times, including three of the last four years. Since late July of last year, Kuchar has made 10 of 13 cuts and finished 21st or better in five events. He seems to have regained a little bit of his form that we are so accustomed to seeing. I think this makes for a good buy-low spot on a player who has shown upside at this course.