We continued the hot streak with yet another week of profit as both Ludvig Aberg (+105) and Tony Finau (+120) easily cashed for top-20 finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open. This week will be much more difficult to predict as we have an 80 player no-cut event at both Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill. The field is stacked and the weather looks less than promising. You have a lot of players in this event that rarely play Pebble Beach, which puts them at a disadvantage to those players who attend this event annually.

What is needed for success this week:

  • Short iron play
  • Putting
  • Course knowledge
  • Ability to play in wind/rain

So let’s take a look at three top-20 wagers:

Patrick Cantlay Top 20 -125

In his last three visits to Pebble Beach, he has finished no worse than 11th. Cantlay is a very patient player who should excel in less than ideal conditions especially during the long pro-am rounds on Thursday and Friday. We are getting a fairly cheap price here on Cantlay, who has been stuck in neutral so far in 2024 with a 56th at Farmers, 52nd at American Express, and 12th at The Sentry. This field isn’t as strong as one would think because many of the top players haven’t played much at Pebble and many of the middle upper tier players on the PGA Tour have gone to LIV. Look for Cantlay to linger on the front page of the leaderboard all week.

Jordan Spieth Top 20 +108

Spieth has finished 21st or better in eight of his last 10 appearances at Pebble. He is an absolute grinder who excels when conditions get tough, as it forces him to get creative and show off his short game and shotmaking. Last we saw Spieth, he finished third at The Sentry.

Jason Day Top 20 +195

Going with a similar theme to Cantlay and Spieth, I’ve chosen yet another player who has played Pebble frequently in Day. Even through all his ups and downs over the last nine years, he has finished no worse than 24th in his eight appearances at Pebble, including six top seven finishes. I am buying low off of Day’s missed cut last week. We have seen his game really turn around the last six months and +195 seems like a steal for Day to finish top 20 this week.

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