What to Watch For at the Open Championship

The case for Rory McIlroy is as strong as the case for any other player in the field this week.

Over the past few years, McIlroy’s game has evolved in multiple ways. For years, I’d throw my hands up in frustration watching him manage his way around the golf course. Rory’s 2023 season is the first stretch in which he has demonstrated significant command of on-course strategy. At Oak Hill, he understood the benefits of aggression off the tee. At LACC, a more nuanced test than Oak Hill, he shifted his club selection strategy appropriately.

I am eager to watch McIlroy’s off-the-tee strategy this week at the Open Championship. Royal Liverpool presents a clever, strategic test. As players have mentioned throughout the week, fairway bunkers will impose a massive penalty. The combination of wind, firm conditions, and penal fairway bunkers results in an interesting puzzle. Players must choose lines that minimize their chances of finding a bunker while keeping their ball out the wind. Conditions may end up being softer than in past editions of this championship, drastically reducing the value of keeping driver in the bag as often as Tiger did in 2006. Nonetheless, the dimensions of Hoylake enable a variety of strategies, especially when the wind blows.

No. 3 (the members’ opener) is the hole I am most excited to watch this week.

Third hole at Royal Liverpool (courtesy of the R&A)

Measuring about 425 yards, the third is lined by out of bounds down the right side along the berm. Flare an aggressive tee shot out right and you’ll have a nice birdie look from the tee box. Hitting driver is an option, but it is not a prudent one in most conditions. The better option is to hit less than driver off the tee into the wide section of the fairway, leaving a long-iron approach.

Aerial of the third hole at Royal Liverpool (Google Earth)

In professional golf, you should hit less than driver off the tee only under specific circumstances. Fairways must be significantly narrower at driver length than at shorter distances and/or a significant penalty must threaten wide misses. No. 3 at Royal Liverpool checks both boxes. It is a unique example of a hole that provides strategic intrigue even against modern equipment technology.

I expect Rory McIlroy to make wise decisions on the third hole this week and to strengthen his claim as an intelligent course manager. When projecting performance, I used to penalize McIlroy for poor course management, building in negative Strokes Gained: Decision-Making. Based on what I have seen so far this season, specifically at Oak Hill and LACC, that is no longer the case.

Rory is in form, has experienced success on this golf course, and should deploy an intelligent game plan. It’s time for him to get the job done.