Why I Underestimated Scottie Scheffler

On an episode of the Fried Egg podcast back in September of 2021, I told Garrett Morrison that I didn’t think Scottie Scheffler should be considered a lock for a captain’s pick at the 2021 Ryder Cup. About a week later, Scottie Scheffler went 2-0-1 in the Ryder Cup, including a stellar victory over Jon Rahm in their singles match. He has played brilliant golf ever since. Over the last 18 months, Scheffler has been arguably the best golfer in the world. I definitely got that one wrong.

It is interesting to go back and revisit why I was slow to realize how much potential Scheffler had. He had some firepower off the tee, and he consistently gained strokes on the field with his irons. He had an impressive amateur career. And leading into the 2021 Ryder Cup, he’d just rattled off a string of high finishes, including top 10s in three straight major championships. In hindsight, underestimating Scheffler feels crazy.

I think I whiffed for two reasons:

1. It’s easy to overreact to success over a small sample size, and I didn’t want to fall victim to recency bias after a few strong finishes

2. Scottie looks a little different from other top professionals when he plays golf

The first reason is excusable. Far too often, the golf world loses its collective mind when a young talent shows signs of dominance over a short period of time. Expectations are set unrealistically high. Tom Kim is a good example.

The second reason is inexcusable and provides a valuable lesson.

I recommend this episode of Invest Like the Best, featuring Daryl Morey, president of the Philadelphia 76ers. Morey is a pioneer within the sports analytics space. In fact, “Moreyball” has become a popular term for intelligent, data-driven shot selection.

On the podcast, Morey offered the following wisdom with respect to talent evaluation: “If there’s a player who looks completely different succeeding in their area, they’re probably even an extra cut above everyone else in that industry because they’ve had to battle that bias each step and overcome it.” Powerful.

Much is made of Scottie Scheffler’s footwork. It looks weird. It definitely looks different from others succeeding in his sport.

Squeaky Scheffler.

Scottie’s footwork is louder than others @MemorialGolf 😅 pic.twitter.com/NG0boePlDW

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 3, 2023

Yet Scottie has had success at every stage of his career. Presumably he has also had people in his ear suggesting he needs to change his footwork in order to thrive at the highest level. Well, Scottie’s feet have kept sliding all the way up to the No. 1 spot in the Official World Golf Ranking.

In some ways, Scheffler reminds me of NBA mega-talent Nikola Jokic. Although he has the advantage of being nearly seven feet tall, Jokic is nowhere near as athletic as the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo or LeBron James. In the words of Denver Nuggets head coach Mike Malone, Jokic can’t jump over a phone book. The Nuggets drafted the Serbian in the middle of the second round of the NBA Draft. He wasn’t projected as a superstar, or anything like it. Nonetheless, after leading his team to the best record in the NBA’s Western Conference this year, Nikola Jokic went on a historic run in the postseason.

Best PER in NBA playoff run during the three-point era (min. 15 games)
1. 2018 LeBron James: 32.2
2. 1991 Michael Jordan: 32.0
3. 2023 Nikola Jokic: 31.9
4. 1990 Michael Jordan: 31.7
5. 2014 LeBron James: 31.0 pic.twitter.com/K9Ur2wkGZA

— Ben Golliver (@BenGolliver) June 4, 2023

Jokic looks different from others succeeding in his sport. He isn’t nearly as quick as most NBA players, nor can he jump like they do. Imagine how many times people have cast doubt on his ability to succeed in the NBA. And yet Jokic has been the best player in the NBA this year.

In the second round of the NBA Playoffs, the top-seeded Nuggets were priced as underdogs against the Phoenix Suns. The Nuggets beat the Suns handily. In the Western Conference Finals, the Nuggets were priced as small favorites against the Los Angeles Lakers. Legendary basketball bettor Haralabos Voulgaris tweeted that betting on Denver in their series against the Lakers was “likely the best betting opportunity in 10 years.”

Why do people underrate Nikola Jokic? Maybe for the same reason I missed on Scheffler. These players don’t fit the mold. They break the eye test.

Predictions are hard, especially about the future. But predicting the future is especially difficult when clouded by bias. Perhaps when the next Scottie Scheffler comes around, I won’t be behind the curve in identifying his or her talent, even if the player isn’t scoring any style points.