The Florida Swing is over as the PGA Tour now heads to Texas for two weeks with a first stop at Memorial Park for the Texas Children’s Houston Open. Memorial Park is a unique test that has drawn a fairly good field once again as it tries to mimic Augusta National in a few areas such as minimal rough and shaved green surrounds.

What does it take to succeed at Memorial Park? The preference will be length off the tee as the par 70 course pushes 7,400 yards with almost no penalty for errant tee balls with very few fairway bunkers or hazards. It plays very similar to the Mexico Open at Vidanta in that regard. Tee it high and let it fly. From there, players will be faced with longer than normal approach shots into greens which are fast and undulating with shaved runoffs surrounding most greens. So focus on players who are above average in length and have an elite chipping game from these tight fairway lies.

It won’t be that simple as we have another area to worry about for handicapping this week. Yes, again Mother Nature is trying to throw a wrench in the plans. There is potential for bad weather which could yield a significant wave advantage over the first two rounds.

As of Tuesday afternoon, the forecast looks like:

  • Thursday AM: Winds 10-15 mph with no rain
  • Thursday PM: Winds 15-25 mph with scattered thunderstorms
  • Friday AM: Constant rain with winds 10-25 mph
  • Friday PM: Rain with scattered thunderstorms and winds 10-25 mph
  • Saturday AM: Winds 10-15 mph with no rain expected until afternoon

Based on this forecast it looks like the AM/PM wave could have a distinct advantage this week. They will get one round in without rain and heavy winds while the other wave will likely face multiple rounds of wind and rain. If there is a delay, we will still likely see an edge because that means the AM/PM wave will be playing their second round Saturday morning on a soft golf course with less wind and no rain.

So for purposes of betting, we will target a few guys from the AM/PM wave whose skillset fits this course well:

Min Woo Lee Top 30 +100

Min Woo Lee, also known as Dr. Chipinski to many of his fans, is a great fit for this course. He ranks seventh in driving distance and is an elite chipper of the ball, especially off tight lies. Over the last 12 months, he has finished inside the top 30 in 19 of 25 events. Let’s watch Min Woo cook for a top 30 this week.

Mackenzie Hughes Top 40 +100

Hughes is above average in length but wildly inaccurate off the tee, which usually causes him to lose strokes off the tee or hit less than driver on many courses. That won’t be the case this week as he will be able to bomb away. This will allow him to rely on his strength of having one of the best short games in the field. It shouldn’t be a surprise that he has finished 29th or better in all four starts at Memorial Park.

Alejandro Tosti Top 40 +230

As most diehard golf fans know, Tosti bombs the ball with reckless abandon off the tee, regardless of the course. This usually catches up with him over the course of a full tournament at most courses. But if we look at courses that aren’t penal off the tee and allow him to bomb away freely, his results are staggeringly good. He finished second here in 2024. At the Mexico Open at Vidanta, he finished in the top 10 in two of his three starts. I’ll gladly take a chance that history repeats itself, especially with him playing in the wave that might have an extra edge of a few shots.