Paulie's Picks: Favorites for the 2025 PGA Championship

The second men’s major of 2025 is upon us! Quail Hollow hosts the 2025 PGA Championship in what should be a great test for all 156 players in the field. Distance will be a massive advantage at the driver-heavy course in Charlotte, North Carolina, where there are no holes between 350 and 448 yards. Players will have two drivable par fours (Nos. 8 and 14) and all three par 5s (Nos. 7, 10, and 15) can be reachable in two. Other than that, the field will be faced with nine par 4s that are 449 yards or longer and four par 3s that average 216 yards. 

Besides driving distance, the next most distinguishing metric for the week is putting. These greens are immaculate with plenty of speed and slope, and players will be faced with a lot of putts in the makeable range this week (inside 15 feet) because of the birdie chances on the par 5s and short par 4s. A player with a hot putter who drives the ball long will likely be your winner this week, so let’s take a look at two players who both fit the course perfectly.

Bryson Dechambeau: 14/1 to Win

Bryson DeChambeau ranks top 15 in both driving distance and putting. Since 2020, Bryson has two major wins and a total of seven top-six finishes in 19 starts. If we narrow that down to the two majors that fit his game the best (U.S. Open and PGA Championship), he has five top-four finishes, including two wins in nine starts. Odds of 14/1 are way too high a price for a player who fits the course perfectly and knows how to handle being in contention at majors. I would expect this 14/1 to drop down close to 10/1 by the time the tournament starts.

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Xander Schauffele: 18/1 to Win

Xander Schauffele seems to be the forgotten player in 2025 mostly because of his rib injury to start the season.  He has finished 18th or better in his last 12 majors, including two wins last year at the PGA Championship and Open Championship. He also has finished 18th or better in each of his last four starts in 2025. Xander ranks top 20 in putting and driving distance, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he has finished runner-up at Quail Hollow in each of the last two years during the PGA Tour’s annual stop in Charlotte.

Let’s address the elephant in the room: Why are we not betting on Rory McIlroy or Scottie Scheffler?

Yes, Scottie won in his last start and looked dominant. However, his game doesn’t fit this course the best as it rewards length off the tee and putting, which are his only two weaknesses (if you can even call them that). Perhaps that is why he has never played Quail Hollow in an individual event. His valuation of +400 to win is too low as that implies a 20% chance to win.

In terms of Rory, yes, he won the Masters last month and has won three times at Quail Hollow. But let’s not forget that Rory’s win at Augusta was his first major title since 2014. His valuation of +475 to win is also too low as that implies a 17.4% chance to win.

Ask yourself this: Should the odds of Bryson or Xander winning this week really be three or four times that of Rory and Scottie? My answer is no. Take Bryson at 14/1 and Xander at 18/1.