Paulie’s Picks: 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic

This week, the PGA Tour concludes its 2020 calendar at the Mayakoba Golf Classic. The host course, El Camaleon Golf Club, is a Greg Norman design that places an emphasis on accuracy off the tee and approach shots from 125 to 175 yards. The skill set required by El Camaleon strongly resembles the one preferred by Waialae Country Club, host of the Sony Open. Players who do well at one course tend to do well at the other. For instance, Matt Kuchar and Patton Kizzire have both won the Mayakoba and the Sony in the same season.

Here are some players who could translate past success in Hawaii into strong performances in Mexico this week:

DraftKings

Justin Thomas $11,400

As I’ve mentioned before, DraftKings always struggles to price overwhelming favorites accurately. This week, Justin Thomas is a 7/1 favorite, with the next closest player at 14/1. Thomas should be $13,000 in this field, yet he is only $11,400. He is the top-ranked player in my model, as he is first in birdies, second in approach, fourth around the green, 12th in short irons, and 15th off the tee. Also, he fits the Sony Open corollary; he won there in 2017 after firing a first-round 59.

Brian Stuard $6,900

A very accurate driver and a deadly short-iron player, Brian Stuard has made six cuts in seven tries at the Mayakoba Golf Classic, including two runner-ups and a ninth-place finish. As for the Sony Open, he has finished eighth or better there in four of his past eight appearances.

One-and-Done

Russell Henley

Russell Henley leads the field in approach and in short-iron proximity, which should give him a chance to contend this week if his putter cooperates. In general, he has been very consistent in 2020, finishing in the top 30 in each of his past eight events. Finally, Henley is another past champion at Waialae Country Club.

Charles Howell III

This wily veteran is always the definition of consistency, and El Camaleon definitely suits his game. In eight of the past ten years at the Mayakoba, Charles Howell has finished in the top 20. He has had similar success at the Sony Open, where he has placed in the top 10 in nine of the past 16 years.