Fresh off a Nick Taylor win, the PGA Tour heads to California for the American Express (I still call it the Bob Hope). This tends to be one of the least predictable events on Tour. Players play excruciatingly long rounds in foursomes the first three rounds on three different courses in order to complete the pro-am portion of the event. It usually ends up being a birdie fest that rewards players who get hot with the flatstick as the courses are set up fairly easy. As such, I suggest limiting the number of bets you make this week and focus on just a few wagers. Here are the two most valuable plays I see this week:
Si Woo Kim Top 30 +100
We are getting a depressed price on Si Woo Kim due to his missed cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii last week. However, by digging deeper we see that he hit the ball great but just putted poorly. Over the first two rounds of the Sony, he gained over five strokes ballstriking but lost 5.7 strokes putting. That was his seventh-worst putting result in the last six years. I’m willing to look past a bad two-round sample of putting and focus on the fact that he hit the ball well and now heads to a course where he’s had success. Kim, the 2021 AmEx champion, has finished 25th or better in each of the last four years. I will gladly buy low on Si Woo with a top 30 wager at +100.
Adam Hadwin Top 40 +115
Hadwin had a solid but not spectacular 2024 season. He has continued that into 2025 with a made cut at Sony and a middle-of-the-pack result at the Sentry on a course that does not suit his game. When talking about horses for courses, Hadwin should be the first player that comes to mind. He has cashed this bet in his last eight starts at this event, including five top-six finishes. He has shown enough form over the last two weeks for me to feel more than comfortable backing him this week at plus-money odds in his best event on Tour.
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