Tiering the PGA Tour Strugglers Halfway Through the Season

We’re about halfway through the meat of the 2025 golf season. It’s officially time to check in on some of the golfers facing the PGA Tour’s version of relegation. To varying degrees, each of the names below faces a legitimate chance of finishing the season outside of the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings, meaning they’ll need to earn their way into PGA Tour signature events through a different path or rely on sponsor exemptions in 2026. Let’s get to it.

Tiering the Strugglers

FedEx Cup standings:  

Tony Finau – 46
Jordan Spieth – 49
Sam Burns – 55
Wyndham Clark – 68
Tom Kim – 74
Cameron Young – 76
Will Zalatoris – 83
Sahith Theegala – 95
Max Homa – 100
Nick Dunlap – 103
Adam Scott – 107
Matt Fitzpatrick – 114

A few notes:

I don’t think there should be much concern with Will Zalatoris. His ball-striking has been solid, but his putting is awful. We’ve seen that before! Zalatoris ranks 15th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach with a strong strength of schedule. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him contend in a non-signature event before the year is over.

I’m slightly concerned about Will Zalatoris Sr., Adam Scott. The 44-year-old has only finished inside the top 20 once this year, a T-15 the Sentry back in January. He’s currently 107th in the FedEx Cup standings and may be entering sponsor exemption territory looking ahead to next year. I’m not terribly concerned, but age comes for us all.

I have next to zero long-term concern about Nick Dunlap. I almost put him in the top row of this exercise. He’s 21! That said, things are currently very rough. He’s dead last in SG: Off the Tee and doesn’t have much control over his golf swing. Long term, there’s no need to panic. I just hope Nick is able to zoom out a little bit, appreciate that he’s very early in his career, and build some confidence moving forward. This is rock bottom, and it’s a humbling position from which to play.  

I’m one of Cameron Young’s staunchest defenders, but that’s been much more of a bit than legitimate optimism during the last 12 months, though I’ll still take it to my grave that he should’ve been on the 2023 Ryder Cup team. This year, Cam is losing almost a full stroke per round with his irons, a troubling development for a player with a shaky short game. On any given day, any part of his game could derail his round entirely. Currently ranked 76th in the FedEx Cup standings, Young may very well not qualify for signature events in 2026 via a top-50 season-ending finish. Should he miss out, I’m eager to see which sponsors reveal themselves as Cam Young fans and extend him an exemption next season.

Player Spotlight: Wyndham Clark

If you asked me to create a Mount Rushmore of accomplished golfers who spark diverse opinions, I’d probably nominate Wyndham Clark, Brooks Koepka, Tommy Fleetwood, and Joaquin Niemann. And maybe Patrick Cantlay if Mount Rushmore had five heads. You’d find smart people taking both sides of the “Is this player actually a threat to win big golf tournaments?” debate about all five players. Some people might argue for including Ludvig Aberg and Collin Morikawa in that group, but that’s ludicrous.

Clark is an interesting case. He has one of the highest ball speeds on Tour, eclipsing a 190-mph ball speed at a relatively high rate. However, Clark’s accuracy with driver is suspect at best.

I find it notable, though not surprising, to see some of Wyndham’s strongest performances coming on golf courses where Rory McIlroy has also succeeded. Clark has won at both Pebble Beach and Quail Hollow, where Rory has won one time and four times, respectively. The highlight of Clark’s career, a win at the 2023 U.S. Open at LACC, was one of McIlroy’s closest calls at ending his major championship drought. These are all golf courses that allow ample space to unleash high ball speeds without too much penalty for errancy. Note: Pebble Beach isn’t as distance-oriented as the other two, but the point about errancy stands.

Of course, that’s where the comparisons to McIlroy should end. I’d think about some of the high-ball speed tour players in three tiers:

Tier 1 – McIlroy: a high-ball speed, complete player
Tier 2 – Clark: a high-ball speed, mostly well-rounded player
Tier 3 – Sam Burns/Min Woo Lee: high ball speeds, excellent short game, poor iron play

Tier 1 has the career Grand Slam. Tier 2 has one major championship win and otherwise sub-standard major championship results (seven missed cuts and one top-30 finish in 13 major starts). Tier 3 has poor major championship results. Speed is of significant importance, but you need to have the other pieces, too.

Looking ahead, one of the biggest questions in 2025 is whether or not Clark should be on the U.S. Ryder Cup team at Bethpage. The inconsistency, particularly in majors, is a real concern. On the other hand, the course fit is a huge benefit as Bethpage is an extremely distance-friendly golf course.

We still have four full months of big golf tournaments until the Ryder Cup, but Wyndham needs to deliver performances that demonstrate he belongs on the team. A couple of top 20s in the next three majors would go a long way. Something to keep an eye on entering the Ryder Cup: the potential bottom of the American team isn’t playing particularly well, and some of those names on the bubble don’t have much ball speed, which could become a problem for Team USA at Bethpage. Nonetheless, if Wyndham doesn’t post solid performances, I wouldn’t have a problem with captain Keegan Bradley leaving him off the team.

This week, Wyndham is teeing it up at the Zurich Classic alongside partner Taylor Moore. As I mentioned on today’s episode of The Shotgun Start, it continues to blow my mind how few top players take advantage of the freeroll at FedEx Cup points this week. I know guys are tired, but this week can be the difference between locking up status on the PGA Tour or relying on sponsor exemptions for invites to signature events next season. Pick a complementary partner and go play the Zurich. Where are you, Tony Finau?

Respect to Wyndham for teeing it up this week. That Clark/Moore team has some potential.

Reader-Submitted Question

Reader: Given where you ranked him headed into the Masters, you definitely think Brooks Koepka is still very capable. Now that Rory has won, and they are tied in major championship count, will we see a competitive Brooks appear at a major championship again? Or is Brooks more like Arnold Palmer (seven wins in seven years and none after) or Lee Trevino (five majors in seven years and then one ten years later)?

Answer: Ok, I’ll make my official Brooks Koepka stance today. Entering the Masters, I placed him in a tier titled “Not Ruling It Out” alongside Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, and Viktor Hovland. I had ten golfers tiered in categories above him, and I wouldn’t have put Brooks at the top of the tier I put him in. Where I positioned him still might be a bit generous and overrepresent my confidence in him. There’s a certain respect I’ll always maintain for Brooks after witnessing his five major wins (and four runners-up, by the way!).  I’ll also never forget this quote about him.

All of that said, if you made me choose between betting above or below his consensus expectations at each major moving forward, I’d bet below. I might end up being wrong once or twice over the next five years (hence the “Not Ruling It Out”), but I am confident that being lower-than-consensus on Brooks is the correct position. I wouldn’t be afraid to leave him off the team at Bethpage either.

Consistency is king in this sport, and we haven’t seen a consistent Brooks Koepka in a long time, really since 2021. In general, give me the consistent performer over someone you’re hoping will elevate their game in majors to a level well above the level at which they’re playing week in and week out. And it bears repeating: the level of play required to contend on LIV is much lower than what’s required to contend in signature events. And Brooks isn’t even contending in LIV events regularly.

Could he pick off one more major? Sure, I wouldn’t rule it out. He’s a brilliant golfer. But unless something changes drastically in his form, I’d be confident taking the other side of Brooks’ optimism at every major moving forward.

Ok, that’s all for this week. If you have a question you’d like me to answer next week, email me at joseph@friedegg.n4.studio. Thanks for reading!