by Castle Pines! It’s exciting to see a new course featured on the PGA Tour this week. Okay yes, it was the site of The International tournament until 2006, so it isn’t technically new, but it’s been a long time since PGA Tour players have teed it up here.
Heading into this week, there is quite a bit of buzz surrounding this golf course in the…uh… “predictive modeling” community. I’ve heard Castle Pines referred to as “Augusta in the mountains,” but I see it as much closer to Muirfield Village, with hints of Quail Hollow more so than Augusta. The course won’t demand the same level of accuracy off the tee as Muirfield Village, but the holes share similar designs.
The 18th hole, with the clubhouse in the background, particularly mirrors Muirfield Village.
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No. 18 at Castle Pines (Google Earth)
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No. 18 at Muirfield Village (Google Earth)
You’ll hear repeatedly throughout the tournament that Castle Pines is the longest course in PGA Tour history, with the potential to stretch over 8,100 yards. However, the course plays much shorter due to the increased distance the ball travels at altitude, another point that will be hammered during the telecast.
⛳️ Castle Pines Golf Club
⛰️ Average altitude of 6,200 feet
📏 8,130-yard par 72
👀 Longest course in PGA TOUR historyBehold the beauty @BMWChamps. pic.twitter.com/k2bYrg5Vw5
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 21, 2024
Altitude introduces several interesting dynamics. The increased distance the ball travels is the biggest and most obvious factor, but as players have noted in pre-tournament pressers, the ball travels different distances depending on height, placing a premium on trajectory control.
The additional distance the ball travels isn’t the only consideration this week. I was amused by Patrick Cantlay’s comments with respect to the physical toil of traversing the expansive property:
“It’s a longer walk, I’ll tell you that. There’s going to be some tired caddies at the end of this week with the uphill and the downhill and the 8,100 yards. The ball is going farther, but we’ve got to walk all that way.”
Like playing the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena, it’s an endurance test!
But I think the most interesting facet of playing at altitude was highlighted by Wyndham Clark. When asked about the challenge players who see this course for the first time face, he said:
“I don’t think guys are going to be too far behind the 8-ball, but I like to think I have a little bit of an advantage, at least with being comfortable hitting the ball at altitude and the ball not curving as much and things like that.”
That last line is key, and while I’m no expert on aerodynamics, science does seem to support that point. My own data supports it as well.
Wyndham Clark is a popular name this week in betting circles, with many touting his hometown ties and familiarity with playing at altitude. I’d add that these conditions are beneficial for his ball flight. After some rough performances earlier this year, Wyndham has bounced back this summer with four top-15 finishes in his last five starts.
His first start as a pro in his home state of Colorado ⛰️
@Wyndham_Clark reflects on watching the legends of the game at Castle Pines when he was just a kid. pic.twitter.com/WbhhzM3hIz— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 20, 2024
The player I am most interested in watching this week, though, is Rory McIlroy. If you’re into predicting golf tournaments, I think it’s worth considering that Rory McIlroy and Wyndham Clark often appear on leaderboards together. They share obvious traits like power off the tee, but there are subtler parallels as well. People will recall that Clark and McIlroy occupied the top two spots at the U.S. Open last year at Los Angeles Country Club. And LACC wasn’t the only time those two have had success on the same golf course. Look up the last two winners of the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow.
Rory played terrible golf last week in Memphis, finishing nearly dead last in a 70-player field. Otherwise, he has mostly played strong golf this year, especially dating back to the Valero Texas Open in April. That said, McIlroy has no claim to being the best player in the world right now. Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele are consistently performing at a higher level this year. If Rory’s goal is to reassert his dominance, this week presents an opportune time for the 2012 BMW champion to remind everyone of who he is. If he struggles again this week, I wouldn’t chalk it up to course fit.
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