Storylines are abundant as we head into the Open Championship. How will Rory bounce back after that US Open? Can Bryson continue his 2024 major momentum? Will Scottie return to his normal major form at a links venue after a 41st-place finish at Pinehurst? Is this the week where Ludvig breaks through as a future superstar? Oh yeah, and that guy Tiger is playing too. It’s going to be fun to watch the best players in the world adjust to a type of golf test they aren’t accustomed to.

The Open rota courses each have their own set of skills required to succeed. Take the Old Course at St. Andrews, which allows bombers to be aggressive off the tee. Or Carnoustie, which demands elite overall driving and plenty of patience. Royal Troon, this week’s host, rewards accuracy more than power off the tee. It’s a course where position off the tee and on approach matters. Look no further than what happened in 2016 with Henrik Stenson, one of the elite tacticians in the game who also had a very accurate 3-wood off the tee all week en route to a historic win. Let’s take a look at a few players who, despite being among the best players in the field and profiling as good fits for the course, might still go a bit under the radar.

Collin Morikawa 19/1 to Win

Morikawa, the 2021 Open Champion, is coming into this event surprisingly quietly. Yes, he missed the cut at the Open in both 2022 and 2023. But 2022 was at St. Andrews which does not suit his game that well, and 2023’s edition came while he was in a slump and working on swing changes. He comes into this week playing great golf. Since finishing 3rd at the Masters he has finished in the top 16 in all nine of his starts, a T-4 finish at the Scottish Open this weekend. Morikawa’s game is built on precision, both off the tee and on approach. His game fits Troon similarly to how Stenson’s did in 2016. I think we see Morikawa contend this week, and with question marks surrounding many of the other favorites (Scottie, Rory, Bryson, etc), Morikawa makes for a logical choice at much higher odds to take home a second Claret Jug.

Shane Lowry 37/1 to Win

Similar to Morikawa, we are taking a look at the 2019 Champion Golfer of the Year, Shane Lowry. Their games are very similar in that they rely on precision and accuracy more than brute force. Lowry is an excellent links player who has finished 21st or better in three of the last four Opens. He comes into this event in great form. He hasn’t missed a cut in his last 14 events which include top-10 finishes at the PGA Championship, Travelers, Bay Hill, and the Cognizant Classic. On top of that he has finished in the top 20 at the Players and at the U.S. Open. He also captured a team win with Rory at the Zurich. He’s had a really solid year thanks in part to his elite ball-striking. Look for Lowry to make some noise this week and contend at 37/1.

Stay tuned throughout the week, as we’ll have explore both longshots and the best overall bets for the Open Championship.