This week the PGA Tour makes the trek from upstate New York to Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge at historic Colonial. It features a setup that is a bit different than most weeks on Tour. We only have a 120-player field on a course that rewards accuracy and precision more than the bomb and gouge that we see most weeks on Tour. So if we are trying to profile a player for success, look at accuracy off the tee, putting, and approach from 125-175 yards. Let’s take a look at a few players that fit this mold and you could target this week:
Tommy Fleetwood $9,200
This might be the week for Fleetwood’s first victory in the United States. Even though he has only played this event once, this course appears to be a perfect fit for him. He ranks first overall in my data model this week as he ranks top 10 in approach, around the green, birdies, approach from 125 to 175 yards, while being above average in accuracy off the tee and putting. He has only missed the cut in three of his last 36 events. Fleetwood comes into this event in great form with top-18 finishes at the PGA Championship, Wells Fargo, and RBC Heritage, which all had stronger fields than Colonial. He makes for a great start to your lineup this week.
Chris Kirk $9,100
Kirk has made the cut in his last 11 appearances at Colonial, including a win in 2015. He has had a great 2023, with three top-three finishes highlighted by the win at the Honda Classic. Kirk is above average in both accuracy off the tee and putting, while also ranking 13th in approach from 125 to 175 yards, which is where a large majority of approach shots come this week.
Brendon Todd $7,800
In his last six appearances at Colonial, Todd has three top-eight finishes. He quietly has had a successful 2023, making the cut in his last five non-major starts, including an eighth place finish at Wells Fargo on a course that didn’t fit his game that well. Earlier in 2023, he finished second at Pebble Beach, which is a very good corollary course to Colonial. Todd is the only player in the field to rank top 10 in both driving accuracy and putting. The $7,800 is way too cheap a price for a player who is likely to contend this week.
Past Picks: Paulie on the 2022 Chuck Schwab Challenge at Colonial