We’re almost to Sunday at the Open Championship.

Normally ahead of the final rounds at majors, we would talk about the group of leaders at the top who have separated themselves. That doesn’t really exist at Troon, as a day of worsening conditions meant it was much better to be out early. And by worsening, we really mean worsening. The afternoon broadcast was essentially one of those four-hour YouTube videos with rain sounds, unbroken except for occasional applause and frequent Brad Faxon. The timing served to tighten the race, as the leaders faced worse weather than the starting groups. So, who has a chance to win? Well, everyone we highlight below, and also plenty of others; there are 24 players within 6 shots of the lead. Anything could happen. (And that’s especially true from 8 to 11, as Joseph LaMagna writes.)

The Lead Pack

Billy Horschel (-4) was absolutely electric on Saturday. Whenever any future PGA Tour whiner once again trots out the tired “Fans want to see us make birdies!” line they should be forced to sit and watch Billy’s back nine from Saturday. After going out in 32, Horschel was forced to battle in the elements down the stretch.

He pulled out everything, too, going hat backwards in the rain, removing his rain gear to hit full-swing shots, coming agonizingly close to multiple holed pitches and chips for birdie, and scrambling his ass off everywhere else. He shot 69 in the worst of the weather. He’ll be in the final group. It’s the best chance he’s had to win a major.

Thriston Lawrence (-3) played sparkling golf in the wet on Saturday, going out in 30 and then holding it together on the back for a 65. He posted that 65 hours before play ended, then watched as the leaders came back to him thanks to the conditions.

If he wins, he’ll become the fifth South African to win the Open, joining Ernie Els, Louis Oosthuizen, Gary Player, and Bobby Locke. He’d also be the first Burly Boy to win since Shane Lowry.

Sam Burns (-3) opened his Saturday with a bogey, then proceeded to play the next 17 holes in seven-under par for a 65. Burns has the talent to win a major, and could certainly follow the same path as others on this section of the leaderboard to a victory. In any case, just popping up in these spots is a great sign for Burns at this point.

All credit to Dan Brown (-3). Stepping onto the tee at 18, he needed just par to have a one-shot lead, bogey to finish tied with Horschel. Instead he made a six, finding an awkward fairway bunker lie off the tee, then finding a greenside pot bunker. But for most of the day, he was impossibly fun to watch, making five birdies en route to his two-over 73.

He was not out there making pars, which is all you can hope for from an entertainment standpoint.

Justin Rose (-3) has had an amazing week, and even his round today was impressive given the conditions, even if he slid back a few slots with a 73. For him, a win would clearly be priceless, but a top-10 finish would also mean an invite to play next year’s Open. That’s true for others too, of course, but for Rose, a player who went through qualifying rather than complain about exemption criteria, it would certainly be extra sweet.

Four-under through 10 holes today, Xander Schauffele (-3) was right at the top of the board. From there, though, he bogeyed 11 and 18, finishing the day with a two-under round of 69.

Xander being in this position in a completely different tournament caps off what feels like a legitimate breakthrough year for him. He has the chance to finish in the top 10 of all four majors, and he also has a chance to win two majors in the same calendar year. If he does that, he might be the only player alive who wouldn’t trade years with Scottie Scheffler.

Russell Henley (-3) is 35, which can’t be right, the 2013 Sony Open was just yesterday, wasn’t it? Wasn’t it? Mortality contemplation aside, Henley scorched Troon in the rain for a 66 on Saturday, sitting at -3. Henley has been at the top level of the sport for a decade now, with four PGA Tour wins to show for it. While that kind of record is usually enough to assume a player probably isn’t going to contend on a Sunday, working in Henley’s favor is the fact that they both came since the start of 2023, including a T-7 at Pinehurst. He has a chance at his best major finish ever, win or no.

Scottie Scheffler (-2) is Scottie Scheffler, and he has been doing Scottie Scheffler things.

He could win, because he’s Scottie Scheffler. If he does, it would be both incredible and somehow strangely predictable. Again: he’s Scottie Scheffler.

Overnight leader Shane Lowry (-1) had a miserable day, making a double at the Postage Stamp and falling apart from there en route to a 77. He’s not completely out of it yet, of course, and a win would make him a two-time champion. It’d be fun to see him make a Sunday charge.

This piece originally appeared in the Fried Egg Golf newsletter. Subscribe for free and receive golf news and insight every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. For more coverage of the Open Championship, visit our Open hub.