With so much hype and anticipation around the Masters this week, I wanted to give out some of my bets to add to the DraftKings content we posted on Sunday. Let’s dig in:
Louis Oosthuizen: -102 over Bryson Dechambeau (Fanduel)
Oosthuizen has made the cut in 28 of his past 30 majors and has finished 33rd or better in 14 of his past 15 majors. Bryson, in contrast, hasn’t finished better than 29th in his four appearances at the Masters as a professional and has failed to beat Oosthuzien in any of those years. DeChambeau is arguably in his worst form as a pro, still nowhere near 100% recovered from his injuries. Over four days, Oosthuizen’s consistency will win out over DeChambeau’s wildness. This line should be -160.
Joaquin Niemann: -112 over Hideki Matsuyama (Fanduel)
Matsuyama is struggling with lingering neck issues, which forced him to withdraw before the Players and during the Valero Texas Open last week. I can’t imagine his neck is much better this week, especially considering the damp, cold forecast. Niemann, meanwhile, has flourished in 2022, claiming a signature win at Riviera. He has gained a massive 30 strokes tee to green versus the field in his four stroke-play events this year. This line should be -155.
Win and top 20
Brooks Koepka: 20/1 to win, -115 top 20 (DraftKings)
As I mentioned in my DraftKings article, Koepka is a great option at the 2022 Masters. The market is undervaluing the best major player who isn’t named Tiger Woods in this field. Koepka has finished inside the top 10 in 15 of his past 22 majors, so I will gladly take -115 odds for him to place in the top 20 this week. I believe Koepka should be 15/1 to win and -200 to finish top 20.
Jordan Spieth: 22/1 to win, -110 top 20 (BetRivers/Barstool)
Spieth has played the Masters eight times and finished third or better five times. He comes into this event a bit under the radar, with other big storylines giving him cover. He struck the ball great in Texas last week, gaining 10.9 strokes tee to green. However, he lost 7.2 strokes putting en route to a T-35 finish. If he had an average putting performance at the Valero, he would have been in contention, and his odds this week would be a lot lower, as everyone would be hyping him up. Keep in mind that Spieth is a different putter when he visits Augusta. The fast, undulating greens allow him to be creative and use feel more than mechanics. If he has any semblance of a flatstick this week, he will contend, and those 22/1 odds will seem like a gift. I believe Spieth should be 16/1 to win and -165 to finish top 20.
Top senior: Padraig Harrington +145 (Fanduel)
The seniors in the 2020 Masters are Harrington, Bernhard Langer, Fred Couples, José María Olazábal, Vijay Singh, Larry Mize, Sandy Lyle, and Mike Weir. I would be surprised to see any of those players aside from Harrington, Langer, and Couples earn low-senior honors. But I have low expectations for Couples, as he has persistent physical issues and hasn’t played an event yet in 2022. While the general public will be backing Langer because he has made cuts at Augusta National in recent memory, his form is not as solid as it has been in years past. Father Time may finally be catching up with the German.
So the value lies with Harrington, who is playing some of his best golf in a long while. He finished runner-up last week on the Champions Tour and has placed 27th or better in each of his past five starts on the DP World Tour. In his most recent PGA Tour start, he finished 42nd at Bay Hill. And let’s not forget that Harrington took fourth at the PGA Championship last year. If the forecast of wet conditions holds and the course plays long, that will play give Harrington an even bigger advantage, as he hits drives the ball 25 yards farther than Langer on average. This line should be +100
Top Canadian: Corey Conners -200 (BetRivers/Barstool)
The other Canadians in the field are Mike Weir and Mackenzie Hughes, so basically this prop is Corey Conners versus Mackenzie Hughes. Let’s look at Hughes first. He has missed the cut in four of six stroke-play events this year, and his ball-striking has been a problem in 2022: he hasn’t gained strokes off the tee in any event, and his best iron performance involved gaining only 0.6 strokes on the field. This is a bad recipe for Augusta National. On the other hand, Corey Conners is an elite ball-striker in great form. He finished 11th at Bay Hill, 26th at the Players, and third at the Match Play while missing only six cuts in his past 34 starts. Plus, he has been top 10 in both of the past two editions of the Masters. This line should be closer to -260.
Make-cut parlay: Louis Oosthuizen/Viktor Hovland/Xander Schauffele -117 (PointsBet)
This selection is available via the “Masters Parlay Hub” on PointsBet. This is my favorite bet of the 2022 Masters. The cut is the low 50 players and ties after 36 holes. In a field of just 91 players, making the cut is not difficult. Why, you ask? Well, there are six amateurs and eight seniors who are unlikely to make the cut, so the true field size is closer to 77. Oosthuizen has made 28 of his last 30 cuts in majors, including his past eight at Augusta National. In fact, he hasn’t missed a cut at any tournament, major or not, since 2020. Viktor Hovland is an exceptional ball-striker who has missed only two cuts in the past two years. Schauffele has made the cut in 14 of his past 15 majors and missed only three in the past 26 months. This line should be at least -225.
More Masters coverage from The Fried Egg team:
Is Augusta National Turning Over a New Leaf?
Geoff Ogilvy’s notes on all 18 at Augusta National
Stories worth your time and tracking at the 2022 Masters
The Art Behind Augusta’s Roars: Focal points in Alister MacKenzie’s routings
Tiger’s Masters flirtation is something more than ceremonial