March Madness is nearly upon us and we all know what that means. The Players Championship is here!!!! The Players has arguably the best field in all of golf and challenges players with one of the most demanding courses they will face all year. You can’t fake your way around TPC Sawgrass. Players who struggle with ballstriking are exposed and often see the bogies pile up. Players who use cautious aggression are the ones who are often rewarded. The course will yield plenty of birdies, but you need to pick your spots. Players who are aggressive with reckless abandon often end up with crooked numbers on their scorecards.
So in terms of bets this week, we want to try and target players who have a high level of ballstriking consistency combined with a level of mental acuity when it comes to managing their way around TPC Sawgrass. Let’s take a look at a few of my best bets to make this week:
Tournament Matchup: Michael Kim -120 vs Jordan Spieth (FanDuel/DraftKings)
I am completely surprised we got this great of a line on this tournament matchup. We are getting a continuously undervalued Michael Kim vs an overrated valuation on Jordan Spieth.
Kim is on an absolute heater right now with five consecutive top-13 finishes. In each of those five events, he gained strokes in all four major categories: off the tee, approach, around the green and putting. His mental game has excelled during this time as well, as we have seen his bogey rate drop significantly (very key for this week). That elite consistency bodes well for another high finish this week.
His opponent, Jordan Spieth, has struggled historically at TPC Sawgrass, missing the cut in six of his ten appearances. He has finished inside the top 40 only once. Many of these results came when Spieth was at the top of his game and looked unbeatable. Now, many years later, he is on his way back from injury and adjusting to a new swing. Do we really think Spieth is all of a sudden going to find success on a course that punishes his weaknesses? I don’t think so. Take Kim to finish ahead of Spieth this week.
Made Cut: Adam Scott -140
Scott has made the cut in 18 of his last 21 Players Championships, including 11 of the last 12. We are getting a very cheap price on him because of his long odds to win the event. However, not all players priced the same to win the event have the consistency level. Scott is one of the most consistent players in the world. The last time he missed more than four cuts in a year worldwide? How about 2009! Scott’s above average ballstriking combined with his high mental aptitude provides for great success at TPC Sawgrass.
Made Cut Parlay: Tommy Fleetwood & Si Woo Kim -104 (FanDuel)
Over the last seven years, Fleetwood has only missed 15 cuts and has made the cut in six of his seven appearances at the Players. Fleetwood has continued his elite ballstriking this season and should be able to pick apart TPC Sawgrass and make the weekend yet again.
Si Woo Kim isn’t the first name that comes to mind when you think of consistency. But when it comes to TPC Sawgrass, Kim is top-notch. He has made the cut in all eight appearances at the Players. He comes into the event in good form with top 25 finishes in each of his last four events. I fully expect Kim to make the weekend once again.