Paulie’s Picks: 2026 Cognizant Classic

Long gone are the days of PGA National being a terrifying golf course. 

The softened version pros face now at the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches offers only a small challenge compared to the setup that used to wreak havoc. So what changed? Over the past few years, a Rye overseed has taken away from the unknown difficulty of shots both on approach and around the green. Players also don’t have to deal with the difficult into-the-grain chip shots from the fairway. The overseed makes the course look great on TV but comes at the expense of scoring. Moving the tees up on Nos. 15 and 17 for multiple days hasn’t helped, either. Don’t get me wrong, there is still a lot of water and trouble on this course to punish poor shots, but if you’re avoiding big numbers, you can put up a pretty good score. Just ask Jake Knapp about his 59 last year. 

So what does that mean for this week? To avoid large numbers we have to place a large emphasis on ball-striking, especially iron play from 150-200 yards. A typical week on Tour sees players hitting 36% of approach shots from this distance. At PGA National, that number rises to 43%. By targeting elite players from this yardage, we give ourselves the best chance to cash some bets this week. Let’s take a look at two:

‍Johnny Keefer: Top 40, -110

Johnny Keefer is one of the best overall ball-strikers in this field. He has made the cut in each of his four events so far in 2026, all of which boasted much stronger fields than this. He has gained strokes with his ball-striking (a combination of SG: Off the tee and Approach) in all but one round, and in that second round of the WM Phoenix Open, he lost only 0.2 strokes. In his other three rounds at TPC Scottsdale he gained more than seven strokes via his ball-striking. This is elite-level stuff that no one is really talking about, and it’s precisely what is needed to succeed at PGA National. It also doesn’t hurt that he ranks 13th on approach from 150-200 yards.

Expert Analysis: Our panel tiered the best players in the world (and answered our questions)

Sam Ryder: Top 40. +140

This pick is a bit under the radar due to his average approach stats. However, when you dig into his splits based on yardage gaps, he is well below Tour average inside 150 yards and outside 200 yards, but one of the best players on Tour between 150-200 yards (sixth among this field). So in terms of course fit, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Ryder has made the cut in all five of his previous appearances at PGA National, including three finishes of 21st or better. So far in 2026 he has only played two events, but he has made the cut both times, and against much stronger fields. I know it is a small sample, but he has gained strokes on approach in every round this year, averaging a robust 1.09 strokes gained per round. In such a weak field of only 123 players, getting Ryder at +140 for a top 40 seems like a steal.