The PGA Tour heads from Mexico to Florida for the Honda Cognizant Classic. Once again on a brutal spot on the schedule, we see a very weak field. Not many top players want to play this event because they have a signature event at Bay Hill with the Arnold Palmer Invitational next week followed by the Players Championship. So the top players that are playing in this field have a large advantage because they clearly chose to play this event for a reason and are up against weaker than normal competition. A great way to attack this angle is via wagers to make the cut which we will get to a bit later on.

But first, let’s take a look to see what it takes to succeed at PGA National. This course historically has been very difficult for players but has gotten easier over the last few years. Still, this track is more of a mental test of planning, commitment, and patience than it is a physical test. Players who are mentally strong and take aggressive swings to conservative targets usually do well. Players who play aggressively with reckless abandon usually meet a watery grave filled with double bogeys (or worse). If you’re looking for a certain physical skillset this week, I would target players who are elite with their short to mid irons as nearly all of the approaches into the greens will come with those clubs.  Being solid with your irons will avoid the water around the greens and give players a bunch of easy pars with makeable looks at birdie.

Let’s take a look at a few wagers to place this week:

Make the Cut Parlay: Russell Henley and Billy Horschel +104 (available at FanDuel)

Horschel has finished 42nd or better in seven of his last eight starts at this event. We are getting a bit of a reduced price here because of his struggles out west in a few events to start the year. Billy excels at plodding his way around a course and taking advantage of his above-average iron play.

Henley has made his last six cuts at this event. In the last 24 months, he has missed a total of three cuts (all of which came in either a major or the Players). Henley is a great ballstriker who limits mistakes which is a perfect fit for PGA National.

The Bay Golf Club Make the Cut Parlay: Min Woo Lee and Shane Lowry -127 (available at FanDuel)

Min Woo has played well in both of his appearances at this event including a runner-up finish a year ago. When people see Lee bomb the ball, they don’t picture him as a very consistent player, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. He has missed a total of only three cuts in his last 44 events.

Lowry has made the cut in each of his seven appearances at this event including top-five finishes in each of the last three years. Similar to Horschel, Lowry is very good at plodding his way around a course and playing to his strengths.