We are onto the second week of the PGA season as players island hop from Kapalua’s Plantation Course to Waialae Country Club for the Sony Open in Hawaii. You really can’t get two more different golf courses to start the year. At Kapalua, players faced enormously wide fairways and large greens with lots of elevation changes. This week players are challenged with a flat, tree-lined course with narrow fairways and small greens. The skillset required is completely different. The players we have seen have success here have an elite short and mid-iron game to give themselves a lot of makeable looks at birdie. This course rewards precision and accuracy more than distance and aggression. Let’s take a look at three players to invest in this week:

Sahith Theegala Top 30 +125

We are getting a cheap price on Theegala this week based on two data points. First, he finished 36th last week after being near last after round one. Second, he missed the cut here last year. That missed cut wasn’t as bad as it seems. He missed by one shot and that was a letdown after finishing runner-up at the Sentry the week prior. If we look at the full body of work for Theegala over the last few years, he is one of the best players in the field. However, he is being priced well below similar players in Corey Conners, Russell Henley, and Tom Kim. All three of those players are priced between -155 and -250 for top 30 finishes. So how is Theegala only +125? Let’s take that depressed pricing this week and play Theegala Top 30 at +125.

Cam Davis Top 40 -106

Davis has cashed this bet in each of his last five appearances at the Sony. He really showed some great form after a rocky start at Kapalua shooting even par in round one. He was the fourth-best player in the field over the final 54 holes, finishing behind only Matsuyama, Morikawa, and Im, all of which were absolutely on fire. If Davis can bring any of that form and momentum to this week, I would expect another top-40 finish.

Nick Taylor Top 40 +180

Ever since his win 11 months ago at the WM Phoenix Open, Taylor has not recorded a top-10 finish and has had plenty of uninspiring results. That leads us to the rock-bottom pricing that we are getting this week for Nick. If there is any course on Tour that fits his game, Waialae CC is it. He has won a top 40 ticket in each of his last four appearances at the Sony including three top 11 finishes. Now why would I be backing a player who seems not to be in form? Well, digging into last week, Taylor really found something with his irons in round three at Kapalua, gaining over five strokes on approach that round alone against the field! That was the best single-round iron performance last week by any player by 1.2 strokes. So he clearly found something and that elite iron game is there. He finished 48th last week on a course that does not suit him while losing over five strokes putting. If Taylor can bring any semblance of that iron game this week, he will cash another top-40 wager at a course that suits him very well.

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