It’s party time! The PGA Tour heads to TPC Scottsdale for the greatest show on grass where players will be competing in front of thousands of raucous fans. The course itself is nothing to write home about, but the atmosphere combined with the ability for great leaderboard swings on the final four holes creates one of the best events in golf for fans, both in person and on TV.

So what does it take to succeed at TPC Scottsdale? Year after year we see ballstrikers reign supreme at this event for a bevy of reasons. First, there are a lot of risk/reward opportunities that ballstrikers can take advantage of where those who aren’t hitting it as solid may rack up big numbers or have to play conservatively. Second, there is just enough desert off the tee to potentially punish players with errant drives. Finally, the greens here are some of the easiest to putt on Tour, which means there is less skill involved in terms of reading greens and making putts. We have seen so many instances of players who are historically elite ballstikers and subpar putters having a slightly above-average putting week and contending here. 

Let’s take a look at three ballstrikers to target for top 20 finishes this week:

Justin Thomas Top 20 -137

Thomas has finished no worse than 17th in each of the last seven years of this event, many of which had much better fields than this year. He has regained some form since hitting rock bottom last year as he finished second just a few weeks ago at the AmEx. When thinking of elite ballstrikers (especially with short irons) who at times struggle with their putters, JT is one of the first players who come to mind.

Nick Taylor Top 20 +230

Nick Taylor just continues to be underpriced in the market.  He won this event in 2024 and finished second behind Scottie Scheffler in 2023. Taylor is hitting his irons the best he ever has. He has gained at least four strokes on approach in each of his last three events. How many times has he previously done that in his career? How about NEVER! I would not be surprised to see him contend for his second win of 2025.

Luke Clanton Top 20 +250

This one is another one the market seems to be confused about. Just because he is still an amateur it seems like we are getting inflated prices. He is arguably a top 20 player in the world right now based on his metrics but he is being priced nowhere near that level. Clanton has played 10 PGA Tour events over the last eight months. He has finished top 15 in five of those starts, including runner-up finishes at the John Deere and the RSM. His ballstriking during those 10 events would have him ranked only behind Scheffler. On a course where ballstriking is king, give me Clanton to finish top 20 at +250.