One round remains at the 152nd Open Championship. 37-year-old Billy Horschel holds the 54-hole lead, only the second time he’s been within six shots of the 54-hole major championship lead in his career. Seven other golfers are within two of his lead, a contingent of players that includes three major champions and multiple Open qualifiers.

Throughout the week, there’s been considerable social media chatter about the randomness of the Open Championship: the weather and tee time wave splits, the timing at which you play certain holes, etc. For some people, this is a negative. For others, myself included, the elements and randomness are part of the Open’s charm. But an Open Championship can produce some chaos, especially when the wind is blowing. With just 18 holes left to play, let’s look at a stretch of Royal Troon that can produce some chaos and may very well determine the final men’s major champion of the 2024 season: holes 8 through 11.

The Postage Stamp eighth hole has produced a wide range of scores so far this week. Birdies are available: about 20% of the field has birdied the eighth hole in each of the first three rounds. Danger also lurks, though. Just ask Shane Lowry, who made double on Saturday from the famed Coffin bunker, the beginning of the unraveling of his round. Though players have a short iron in their hands, the landing area on the eighth green is very small. Well-struck shots may still find their ways into hairy locations, particularly when subject to the whims of the wind. In the 1997 Open, Tiger Woods tripled the eighth in the final round, formally ending any chance he had of contending in the tournament. Rounds will be derailed on the eighth.

The 11th hole presents one of the most intimidating tee shots in major championship golf. A nearly 500-yard par 4 with gorse bushes lining each side of the narrow fairway and train tracks out of bounds down the right, tournament hopes will be ended on the 11th. You can ask Shane Lowry about the dangers of that hole too, as he carded a double there during Friday’s round. In each of the first three rounds, the 11th has registered more doubles or worse than birdies.

Given the density at the top of the leaderboard, Sunday’s final round sets up to be a back-and-forth battle amongst a sizable group of legitimate contenders. However, no matter what the leaderboard looks like, the tournament is nowhere near over until every leader has played 8 through 11. It’s not likely that anyone wins the Open on that stretch of holes, but it’s very possible someone loses it.

This piece originally appeared in the Fried Egg Golf newsletter. Subscribe for free and receive golf news and insight every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. For more coverage of the Open Championship, visit our Open hub.