The streak continues as we had our fifth consecutive week of profit to start 2024, thanks to top-20 finishes by Cantlay (-125) and Day (+190). We will try to make it six weeks in a row with three selections at this week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open. The field this year is not as strong as years past due to being sandwiched between two signature events. However, this event is still one of the most fun to watch, whether on TV or in person.

What is needed for success this week:

  • Above average off-the-tee
  • Above average approach play

Note: this is one of the few weeks on Tour where putting great isn’t necessary to contend. We have seen less than stellar putters contend and win here year after year.

So let’s take a look at three top-20 wagers on players who at times struggle with the flatstick:

Justin Thomas Top 20 -150

JT has finished 17th or better in each of his last seven appearances at the WMPO. His game seems to finally be back with top-six finishes in each of his last five starts, many of which came on courses that he doesn’t play as well on historically compared to TPC Scottsdale. With the late WDs from Hovland and Schauffele, Thomas now slides into this event as the second favorite behind Scheffler. Thomas’s game is predicated on elite ball-striking, and at times he can be held back by a balky putter, but that pretty much sums up a lot of the players who have succeeded here in the past. Look for JT to have a chance to get back to the winner’s circle this week and cash our top-20 wager.

Jordan Spieth Top 20 +105

Yes, I know I mention Spieth so often that I seem like a homer, but the betting market continues to undervalue him. Spieth has finished ninth or better in four of his last seven appearances at this event. Similar to his bud JT, Spieth is above-average with his ball-striking and at times can be hurt by his putter. This week, we only have 132 players in the field, and the bottom half is really weak. Look for Jordan’s ball-striking consistency to reign supreme and allow him to lurk near the front page of the leaderboard on the weekend.

Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 +220

This is a great buy-low spot on Matsuyama after his near last-place finish last at Pebble. Pebble is a bit of a weird event, had a lot of bad weather, and is one stop that Matsuyama typically doesn’t play often. On the other hand, the WMPO has been arguably his best event on Tour. In the last ten years, he has seven top 16 finishes including two wins and a runner up. This course is perfect for Hideki as it puts a strong emphasis on his ball-striking while minimizing the importance of his putter.