Since we have already covered favorites and longshots, let’s take a look at a few of the best bets available this week:
[Ed. note: Odds available as of Tuesday afternoon.]
Will there be a hole-in-one?: NO -134
In a typical tour event, the No price is around +100, which is basically a coinflip chance that a hole in one will occur at the event. A typical course on the PGA Tour has four par 3s, sometimes more. The Old Course at St. Andrews only has two, so that already cuts the opportunities in half. But let’s dig deeper and consider the two par 3s at the Old Course. The eighth hole will play around 175 yards but will make it difficult for players to get the ball close, as its the first hole in over an hour where players will face a new wind direction. Plus, they will be landing the ball on a much firmer and slopier green than they normally see on tour. As for the Eden 11th hole, it will play to a similar yardage but is far more treacherous. Given the way that the green sits, many players will be hedge away from the pin to the safe side of the green to avoid short-siding themselves. Add all this up and the price should be -220 this week, yet we are getting -134. Lock it in!!
Tiger Woods to make the cut: YES -135
Will we see the Tiger Woods of 2000 this week? No. But we don’t need Tiger to do anything special to make the cut. The Old Course is the patient tactician’s dream; every shot must be thoroughly thought out. Tiger is great at dissecting a golf course and determining how best to play a hole. Also, this week has to be special to Tiger considering his love affair with St. Andrews, and that has been evident in all the practice reps that he has put in. For those who are wondering about his physical shape, this is one of the easiest courses on the calendar to walk, and Tiger doesn’t have to save himself for any other tournaments this year. I see Tiger having a 75% chance to make the cut this week, which translates to -300 odds and means that -135 a great value.
Top Welshman: Jamie Donaldson -125
Yes, I know this is an obscure bet, but the value is there. Let’s dig into the three Welshman in the field: Oliver Farr, Stephen Dodd, and Jamie Donaldson. Farr is the 776th-ranked player in the world, and he got into this event via local qualifying. In his last 16 starts on the DP World Tour, he has finished inside the top 45 only twice (Soudal and Mallorca Opens). Then you have the 55-year-old Stephen Dodd, who gained entry into the event after winning the Senior Open Championship last year. He hasn’t finished better than 18th in any of his 11 Champions Tour starts this season. Jamie Donaldson, on the other hand, has been playing some great golf lately, including a sixth-place finish last week at the Scottish Open, which bumped him up to 155th in the world. He is a strong links player and has made the cut in four of his past five Open starts. A made cut this week will most surely cash this bet for us.