Since we’ve already discussed some of the favorites to win the 150th edition of the Open Championship, let’s take a look at some longshots who could contend this week at the Old Course at St. Andrews:
[Ed. note: Odds below available as of Monday afternoon.]
Cameron Young 100/1
Young has been quiet since the PGA Championship. He has since had two missed cuts and recorded a 60th-place finish. So we are in a great buy-low spot, as we are getting a big number on a player who was less than half this number a month ago for the U.S. Open. Should there really be that big of a difference? Young’s biggest weapon is his driver, and if he is on this week, he will have a large amount of birdie chances. He has five top-three finishes this year, so 100/1 seems a bit disrespectful for a player who will be contending in majors for many years to come.
Mito Pereira 110/1
What would Mito’s odds be this week if he parred the 72nd hole at Southern Hills? 50/1? So why are we getting 110/1? I feel like everyone has kind of forgotten about Mito after the PGA Championship, which is somewhat understandable given that he has missed his last three cuts. But when Mito is on, he is one of the best drivers out there, and that is what’s going to be needed to take advantage of the Old Course this week.
Bryson DeChambeau 130/1
This Bryson number simply goes too far. A 100% healthy Bryson a year or two ago would have been 18/1 in this field. Yes, I know he isn’t 100% healthy and hasn’t been in the best form, but is he really seven times less likely to win than he would have been in 2021? If there is a course in the Open rota that suits Bryson’s game, it is St Andrews. He has the ability to drive a large number of par 4s and not have to rely on his iron play as much. This week could be a bit of a birdie fest, so why not bet on Bryson to see if he can get a hot driving week and contend?
Patrick Reed 135/1
As with Bryson, I think this number for Reed has just gotten out of control. Yes, I know he isn’t going to be a sexy pick or fan favorite, but we are only talking about trying to win money here. While Reed has been in a bit of a slump over the past year, falling from seventh in the world to 38th, we have started to see flashes of his old self over the past couple of months. He made the cut in all three majors so far this year and contended in his most recent event at LIV Portland. Plus, he’s no longer using that PXG driver. 135/1 is way too high for a guy who won the Masters four years ago and has had four top 10s in majors since. I would have expected him to be 75/1.