2/5/25

Tiering the World’s Best, a Rickie Fowler Spotlight, and Appreciating TPC Scottsdale

The sixth edition of LaMagna’s Weekly Pro Golf Update

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Welcome to the sixth edition of my weekly pro golf update. Today we return to an updated tiering of the top golfers in the world, plus a spotlight on a highly advertised player and some thoughts on an under-the-radar hole I appreciate at TPC Scottsdale. Let’s dig in.

Tiering the Top

Not much has changed since we last went through this exercise at the beginning of January, which is how it should be. If you’re constantly changing player rankings, you’re probably overreacting to short-term results. Here is the definitive illustration of how the best golfers in the world currently stack up.

A few notes: 

Some people could take issue with elevating Rory McIlroy to Xander Schauffele’s level following one dominant performance at Pebble Beach. After all, Xander has been considerably more consistent than Rory over the last 14 months and won two (!) major championships last year. As things stand right now, though, I consider McIlroy the second-best player in the world. McIlroy has won two of his last three starts and has six top-five finishes in his last seven starts. Meanwhile, Schauffele is managing a rib cage injury. Will his speed be the same when he returns to action? Even if so, is he playing on Rory’s level right now? No disrespect to Xander, but I like McIlroy’s chances right now, especially on distance-friendly setups like Torrey Pines or Quail Hollow. 

I’m holding space for Jon Rahm. Given his lackluster performance in high-profile events over the last 12 months, he probably belongs in the tier below where I’ve placed him. However, a strong performance or two from Rahm would instantly launch him back into consideration for being the second-best player in the world. I can’t say the same for anyone else in the tier below him. He’s been a juggernaut over the last six years and deserves some benefit of the doubt despite a bad missed cut in Dubai in his 2025 debut. Rahm’s form leading up to the Masters will be one of the most intriguing storylines of 2025. 

I know that some of you think Justin Thomas belongs on this graphic. His elite iron play has returned, and he’s been in the mix in three of his last five starts—three weak fields albeit. However, as long as JT keeps hitting wild tee shots and struggling with the putter, I don’t view him as a strong threat to take down a major. He is too much of a liability to pipe a tee shot out of bounds on any hole with trouble in play right now. Pair inaccurate driving with an inconsistent putter and a lot has to go right for him to beat a large, deep field over four days. 

Even more of you likely think Tyrrell Hatton deserves a spot on this graphic. The 33-year-old has won twice in his last five starts and been remarkably consistent over the last two years. Still, I cannot overlook the poor major championship track record. One top-10 finish in his last 19 major appearances? Give me Aberg over Hatton in majors this year. 

Player Spotlight: Rickie Fowler 

Five golfers in the history of the sport have finished in the top five of all four majors in the same calendar year: Jack Nicklaus (1971, 1973), Tiger Woods (2000, 2005), Brooks Koepka (2019), Jordan Spieth (2015), and Rickie Fowler (2014). Four of those names have won at least three major championships. Fowler has won zero. 

At the time in 2014, Rickie was 25 years old, had one PGA Tour win under his belt, and seemed positioned to deliver 10-plus years of high-level golf. A decade later, Rickie’s résumé is lighter than most would have predicted. He remains without a major championship win, though he does have nine PGA Tour and DP World Tour titles to his name, most notably the 2015 Players Championship. In terms of recent success, he has just one win on Tour since 2020—the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic. 

To date, Fowler has been within five shots of the 54-hole lead in a major championship 12 times. Eleven of those tournaments occurred in 2018 or earlier. The 12th instance was the 2023 U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club, where Rickie co-led with Wyndham Clark entering Sunday and ultimately finished T-5. Rickie’s 2023 U.S. Open is his only major championship appearance since the 2021 Open Championship where he has been within 10 shots of the 54-hole lead. 

Is…is it over? 

Yeah, probably. The beautiful thing about golf, though, is that there is hope. Rickie is 36 years old. Legends of the game like Justin Rose, Adam Scott, and Sergio Garcia have shown an ability to compete on big stages into their 40s. Fowler may not be of their stature, or even particularly close, but he is still young enough to tap into the talent that we know lies inside him. Furthermore, he’s quietly playing pretty well right now. 

Rickie has made five PGA Tour starts since last October. He’s gained strokes off the tee in four of them, and he’s also gained strokes on approach in four of them. With better short game and putting, Fowler very well could have contended at the Shriners (T-23) or the AmEx (T-21). And he did sort of contend at the Zozo Championship, finishing three shots back of the winner in solo fourth. 

For nearly the entirety of Fowler’s career, his short game and putting have been two of his biggest strengths. Looking forward, I would expect to see positive regression in those two categories. 

So how should we think about Rickie? Is he overrated? Or has public opinion waned so much that he might be underrated at this phase of his career? 

This week should give us some information about his current state. I don’t want to place too much importance on one result, but this feels like a huge week for Rickie. He returns to TPC Scottsdale, one of his favorite stops on the PGA Tour, a tournament he has already won once and finished runner-up twice. If he puts up a stinker, it’s probably not a great sign of what’s to come for the rest of the year. 

To be clear, my expectations for Fowler this year are low. His best golf is behind him, and he hasn’t played strong golf in major championships in quite some time. This week, though? I’m not expecting it, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Rickie crack his first top 10 in a full-field event since the 2023 Rocket Mortgage. 

Reader-Submitted Question

Reader: What do you think of TPC Scottsdale? I feel like they only show holes 16 and 17. I watch this tournament every year and don’t know many of the holes outside of 15-18. Any holes you recommend paying attention to this week? 

Answer: I’ll probably answer your first question at more length in some fashion later this week or in next Monday’s Fried Egg Newsletter, but I am a big fan of TPC Scottsdale. The back nine is a very good, fun test of professional golf. The front nine mostly stinks, but I actually really like the stretch of holes 3-5. 

Let’s talk about the par-3 fourth hole because I suspect people don’t pay much attention to the fourth. Specifically, I like how this hole plays when the pin is in the small pocket on the right side of the green. The other pin locations aren’t as interesting, admittedly. 

The fourth tends to play between 175 and 190 yards and is protected by two bunkers short and short right with another bunker positioned left of the green. There’s a fairly significant slope on the right half of the green, so putts from the left side to the right are fast—not lightning fast but fast.

The fourth at TPC Scottsdale

Shots that come up short in the right green-side bunker, or even in the runoff area short right, result in very difficult up-and-downs. Approach shots that go long also result in a high percentage of bogeys. To the right pin location last year, there were 18 birdies, 97 pars, and 16 bogeys. The numbers in 2023 looked similar but slightly tougher, with 13 birdies, 93 pars, and 26 bogeys. Birdie is available, bogey lurks, and even a conservative approach shot requires proper execution. 

The fourth hole isn’t one of the best par 3s on Tour, but it’s a solid example of a hole that rewards a well-struck shot while penalizing errancy—something TPC Scottsdale tends to do well, an essential characteristic of a strong professional golf test. Missing in the wrong spots at TPC Scottsdale results in a penalty, and the design doesn’t require thick rough to create a penalty for missing in the wrong spots. Instead, much like Augusta National, the course’s defense is speed, reliably firm conditions, and slope. Miss in the wrong spot at TPC Scottsdale, and you’ll face a difficult shot from a clean lie. 

The forecast calls for very little wind this week, so expect some low scores. Hopefully we’ll get a fun tournament come Sunday, just like we usually do at this golf tournament. 

That’s all for this week. Have a question you’d like me to answer next week? Email me at joseph@thefriedegg.com