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May 14, 2024
3 min read

Paulie’s Picks: Best Bets for the 2024 PGA Championship

It's glory's second shot for Paulie, who offers up his best bets for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla

Jon Rahm holds a finishing position.
Jon Rahm holds a finishing position.

Now that we’ve covered some of the favorites and longshots it’s time to dig into a few of the best bets for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla:

Make-the-Cut Parlay: Xander Schauffele/Jon Rahm/Adam Scott -119 (Fanduel)

Xander comes into this week in great form after a stellar runner-up finish at Quail Hollow, where he was only beaten by an on-fire Rory. Schauffele offers elite consistency; his last missed cut in any event came at the 2022 Masters! He has only missed the cut twice in his last 24 major starts.

Jon Rahm is an elite ball-striker who thrives on courses where he can use his driver often. He has made the cut in his last 18 majors.

Adam Scott is in great form in 2024 only missing one cut and finishing in the top 30 in eight out of ten events. In the last five years, he has missed only 10 cuts across all events.

Brooks Koepka Top 20 +100

As mentioned in the favorites article, Koepka is a great pick this week with his major pedigree, current form, and course fit. He recorded a top 20 in 24 of his last 37 majors, including eight of his last ten PGA Championships.

Dean Burmester Top African +175

I profiled Burmester in the longshots article as he is an elite driver of the ball who is in great form and should fare well this week. He has only played in five majors in the last four years, but he has made four cuts in those five starts, including an 11th-place finish at the 2023 Open. I expect him to contend for a top-20 finish this week.

There are only four opponents that Burmester has to beat in order for this to cash: Erik van Rooyen, Thriston Lawrence, Christian Bezuidenhout, and Ryan van Velzen.

Van Velzen is a young up and coming South African golfer who lacks major experience. He plays primarily in Africa with a few events mixed in on the DP World Tour and Challenge Tour. A missed cut feels very likely for him.

Lawrence has played great outside the PGA Tour over the last two years. But he has only one top-60 finish across eight PGA Tour-sanctioned events during that span, and that came at last week’s Myrtle Beach Classic against a very weak field.

Van Rooyen has only finished inside the top 50 once in a major over the last five years (10 starts). He has played in four PGA Championships and has only finished inside the top 50 once as well.

Bezuidenhout has played great in 2024 and will be Burmester’s toughest competition, but i think the short-hitting South African may not be the best course fit. He hasn’t recorded a top-30 finish in any of his 13 major starts.

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Paulie

Paulie is Fried Egg Golf's resident gambling expert (not to be confused with PJ Clark, who is our resident PGA Tour Champions gambling expert).

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