Paulie’s Picks: 2024 3M Open

Players have a bit of an awkward commute to the 3M Open this week at Minnesota’s TPC Twin Cities. You have some players coming back from the Open Championship and others coming via multiple connecting flights from the Barracuda out west. Whenever there is this much travel and jetlag for the majority of the players, we typically see some weird results. That usually leads me to players who either really want to play this event or who are in really good form and looking to break into the top 70 for the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Let’s take a look at one player who fits into each of these two buckets:

Tony Finau Top 20 -135

Finau loves TPC Twin Cities, playing there each of the last five years and never finishing worse than 28th. He played great last week at Troon in round one, but got caught in the difficult conditions in round two and ended up missing the cut. That’s the first bad round that he has played in months. I’m willing to look at his overall body of work recently, which saw him finish in the top 20 in seven of his previous nine starts. That included three top-eight finishes directly preceding the Open. When we add all this together with how weak this field is, it makes sense to play Finau for a Top 20 at -135.

Rico Hoey Top 40 +150

Hoey is sitting just outside the top 100 in FedEx Cup points, so he needs a high finish in one of these two final events to have a chance to make the top 70 for the Playoffs. His game has trended up significantly over the last month, as Hoey has finished sixth at the Rocket Mortgage, 26th at John Deere, second at ISCO, and eighth at the Barracuda. He has done this with above-average driving and approach play. Whenever we see a player on this type of heater, it takes the books a while to catch up to his pricing. Lock him in for a top 40 this week at +150, as he should continue that solid play and maybe even contend once again.