Paulie’s Picks: 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

The Tour heads to Texas for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson (is that really the name they chose?) This is expected to be a very low scoring week, even with winds and rain forecasted throughout. Whenever there are low-scoring events with high birdie rates and low bogey rates, we see a lot of variance in results. I typically tend to lean to more longshots for weeks like this. The exact opposite is true in majors, where birdies are hard to find and bogies are lurking around every corner. The weaker players are exposed because their mistakes are penalized heavily. The best way to approach this week is to avoid some of the favorites while selectively playing a few longshots.

Let’s take a look at three players to target this week:

K.H. Lee Top 20 +230

Since they were already changing the name to the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, I’m honestly surprised they didn’t just name it the KH Lee Cup. Lee has been dominant ever since this event has moved to TPC Craig Ranch, winning twice in three years!!! Lee is a top-100 player in the world, with top 10s this year at Innisbrook and PGA National. In a weak field like this one, I’ll gladly take a solid player with an affinity for this course.

Seamus Power Top 20 +250

Power seems to love TPC Craig Ranch, finishing top 20 in all three visits. He seems to finally be back to full health after dealing with hip issues for most of 2023. This is a player who reached 28th in the world prior to his injury. He’s regaining his form, missing only one cut in his last eight starts with a 12th-place finish at the Heritage in his last event.

Sam Stevens Top 20 +300

This should feel like a home game this week for Stevens, who lives in nearby Fort Worth. He has finished inside the top 20 in three of his last seven events, including last week at the Zurich when he finished fourth while carrying partner Paul Barjon most of the week. If you dig into Stevens’ metrics he really is a great fit for TPC Craig Ranch. This week features low scoring on bentgrass greens with some high winds expected. Stevens putts better on bentgrass than any other surface. He gains more strokes in windy conditions than in calm conditions. He also gains more strokes in easy scoring conditions than difficult scoring conditions. Now, Stevens may not win this week, but +300 seems an awfully high price for a player who should make the cut and have a chance to improve upon his 34th-place finish here in 2023.