Paulie’s Picks: 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship

The FedEx Cup playoffs are here, with the top 70 in the season-long points race heading to Memphis this week for the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind. From there, the top 50 in the standings advance to the BMW Championship, where the field will be further winnowed down to the final 30 players advancing to the Tour Championship. With a field of just 70 players and no cut, this has the feel of a signature event with a little extra added pressure for those outside the top 30 in the standings.

This tournament is typically very difficult to bet, as you have to appraise and combine a player’s current form, course fit, and their mindset coming into this week. Some of the top players who are already pretty much locked in to the top 30 don’t have as much to worry about. For them, the eventual outcome may only be the difference of a few shots come the Tour Championship.

So what does it take to succeed at TPC Southwind? Typically, this is a ball-striker’s paradise, as errant shots both off the tee and on approach are often punished with bogey or worse. Players who can keep it in play off the tee and dial in their irons will have the best chance at success this week. Let’s take a look at three elite ball-strikers who fit the bill:

Ludvig Åberg Top 20 -140

Åberg is one of the best ball-strikers on Tour and has finished inside the top 20 in 19 of his last 26 events! On his good weeks he contends, and on his bad weeks he seems to linger just outside the top 10. This consistency is both insane and very hard for bookmakers to price correctly. Don’t overthink it this week: play Åberg to finish top 20 against this 70-player field.

Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 -120

Fleetwood, who sits 30th in points, needs a few solid weeks to make it to the Tour Championship. He has prior success at TPC Southwind, with two top-four finishes in four appearances. His elite ball-striking and patient nature are a really good fit for this course. Let’s see if he can ride the momentum of his silver medal in Paris to a solid finish this week.

Adam Scott Top 20 +150

Similar to Fleetwood, Scott needs two solid weeks of golf to make it to the Tour Championship, as he sits 42nd in points. His game has been trending upwards, as Adam followed up a playoff loss at the Scottish Open with a top-10 finish at Royal Troon. Scott’s game is predicated on superb ball-striking and picking a course apart with his patient approach. This has yielded top-10 finishes in two of his last four appearances at TPC Southwind.