Paulie’s Picks: 2023 PGA Championship

The world’s best golfers head to Rochester this week for the PGA Championship hosted at the East Course of historic Oak Hill. As outlined extensively here at The Fried Egg, Oak Hill will play different than it did in 2003 when Shaun Micheel won and in 2013 when Jason Dufner took home the title. The course has been lengthened, numerous trees have been removed, and bunker and green structures inspired by Ross’s original design have been implemented.

So which skills will be emphasized this week? With the increased length and dense rough, there will be a strong focus on driving the golf ball with distance being of greater importance than accuracy. In terms of approach shots, you can expect a slightly higher-than-normal distribution of shots beyond 175 yards. Importance of putting and around the green game will be similar to a normal week on the PGA Tour. Let’s take a look at a few of the top players to target for our lineups this week.

Jon Rahm, $11,400

As we often see with DraftKings pricing, they struggle to accurately price the top players in the field, especially those who have distanced themselves from the main pack of favorites to win the event. Rahm and Scheffler are in a league of their own but not priced as such. Rahm, the 2023 Masters champion, has finished eighth or better in 12 of his last 15 events, including six wins and two runner-up finishes. Not surprisingly, Rahm ranks first in my data model for this week as he ranks top 10 in driving distance, off the tee, birdies, putting, and approach from 175-plus yards. The $11,400 number is way too cheap of a price for a player who has a better than 50 percent chance to finish in the top 10 based on betting odds already posted.

Scottie Scheffler, $11,200

Much of what was said about Rahm above carries over to Scheffler as well. Scheffler has finished 12th or better in each of his last 13 events. He also has finished 21st or better in 10 of his last 11 majors (only MC being the 2022 PGA, where he was on the bad end of a weather draw). Just like Rahm, the betting odds are telling us that he has a better than 50 percent chance to finish top 10. Scheffler ranks second in my data model this week as he leads the field off the tee, sixth on approach, and with the only weakness being a balky putter at times. So please explain to me why he is priced only at $11,200?

Tony Finau, $9,500

Finau is a cheaper version of Rahm and Scheffler. He has quietly become one of the elite players in golf. He has four wins in the last 10 months and has finished 31st or better in each of his last 14 events. Finau ranks third overall in my data model as he ranks top 15 in approach, off the tee, birdies, approach from 175-plus yards, and driving distance. This week features bent grass greens and Finau excels on bent (ranking 16th) compared to non-bent (ranking 77th). This could be Finau’s time to capture his first Major.

Check back later this week for more gambling insights, including Longshots and Best Bets articles.

Past Picks: Paulie on the 2022 PGA at Southern Hills, including a JT tip