Paulie’s Picks: 2025 Valspar Championship

The PGA Tour switches Florida coasts as we move from the Players Championship in Ponte Vedra Beach to the Valspar Championship in Palm Harbor. The field is stronger than initially expected as a lot of players are trying to regain form, rehab from injuries, and play their way into the upcoming Masters.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a difficult test as it rewards ballstriking and punishes errant shots. It’s a lot different than the bomb-and-gouge wedgefest we often see on Tour. This week will once again be difficult, especially with a weather forecast that includes cold morning temperatures and the chance of heavy winds. Before you make any bets or fantasy golf lineups, please check the weather/wind to see if there is an advantage for either morning or afternoon wave over the first two days. Here are a few underdog bets to target this week:

Top French Antoine Rozner +160

You probably think I’m sick in the head but I’m backing Rozner for a second time this year already. He is an elite ballstriker which is exactly what is needed at this track. I would compare his game to Paul Casey who has won here multiple times. Rozner has made his last four cuts worldwide, including four PGA Tour events and a fourth-place finish on the DP World Tour. A made cut may be enough to cash the bet this week against the only two other Frenchmen in the field (Victor Perez and Matthieu Pavon).

Perez is dealing with a back injury which caused him to withdraw from the Players right before his tee time. So I don’t really trust that he will be 100%, especially when it can be windy and in the low 50s in the morning. Pavon has extreme result variance and the ability to put up some large numbers. He has failed to record a top-40 finish in any of his eight PGA Tour starts this year, with four of those being limited-field signature events.

Getting Rozner here at +160 is a crazy high price given the statuses of Perez and Pavon. Lock it in!

Top Canadian Adam Hadwin +400

There are five Canadians in the field: Corey Conners, Adam Hadwin, Mackenzie Hughes, Ben Silverman, and Adam Svensson.

First, let’s talk about Hadwin. He has played this event nine times and has a mixed bag of results. He has four top-12 finishes but never finished inside the top 70 in any other appearance. That’s ok for this bet as we are taking him at +400 and are looking for a spike performance week. He hasn’t had the most spectacular 2025 with missed three cuts in eight starts, but Hadwin has shown some upside with a ninth-place finish at the WM Phoenix Open.

We are fading Conners at his absolute peak pricing here on the back of top-six finishes the last two weeks. He has played seven events this year and has finished inside the top six in three of them. However, in the other four events, he is 3.2 strokes below the field average per event. That leaves the door open for another Canadian to possibly finish ahead of him this week.
Now yes, Conners is playing well right now, but to be listed at +115 with Hadwin being the second favorite at +400 is way too big of a gap.

In Hughes’s eight starts this season, he only has one top-35 finish, a 22nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a limited-field event. Now yes, Hughes did finish third here a year ago, but that was when he was in the middle of a great stretch of golf. Last year, in an 11-event stretch, he had eight finishes of 31st or better, including the two events prior to the Valspar. In 2025, his ballstriking numbers have been down as he has only gained strokes in that category once in eight starts. He makes for a good candidate to fade in this market.

Svensson is in a slump. In his eight starts this season, he has missed the cut five times and doesn’t have a better finish than 30th. His best result in three appearances of this event is 39th. Silverman has missed five of his last six cuts and hasn’t made a cut in three starts at this event.

Lock in Hadwin at +400.