Paulie’s Picks: Best Bets for the 2024 U.S. Open

We’ve covered some favorites and some longshots, and now it’s time to dig into the best bets for the week.

Make the Cut Parlay: Cam Smith & Hideki Matsuyama +112 (FanDuel)

As mentioned in the favorites article, Smith is a great fit for this course. His superb short game should provide a pretty good floor for his result this week, even if his ball-striking isn’t great. We are getting a cheap price on him because he’s a LIV player and has had some bad U.S. Open results in the past, but those performances came on traditional U.S. Open courses that penalize errant tee balls with thick rough.

Matsuyama has made the cut in the last 16 majors. His game is predicated on elite iron play combined with a deft chipping and pitching touch around the greens. That skill combo plus his patient approach and he makes for a great option to pair with Smith for a made-cut parlay.

Hideki Matsuyama Top Japanese -120 (DraftKings)

This is the perfect combination of a consistent, elite player up against a group of players who are very likely to miss the cut. And if any of his opponents do make the cut, they are likely to falter over the weekend and finish toward the bottom of those who made the cut.

In 36 of his last 43 majors, Hideki has finished inside the top 40. Another top 40 this week will likely be good enough to cash this bet. So you may be wondering why not just bet his top 40? Well, that’s priced around -200 at most books.

I’ll take my chances at -120 against his opponents of: Takumi Kanaya, Ryo Ishikawa, Rikuya Hoshino, Taisei Shimizu and Riki Kawamoto. They have a combined one top 40 in the last 10 years in majors.

Victor Perez to Make the Cut -110 (DraftKings)

As profiled in my longshots primer, Perez comes into this event on a heater. He is playing some of the best golf of his career, and the betting market just isn’t catching up to his improved form. I will gladly take almost any player who has finished third and 12th in the last two weeks on the PGA Tour to make a cut at -110.

Winning Score over 274.5 -105 (FanDuel)

Based on everything that we have heard from players and past performances at Pinehurst, I would be surprised to see anyone light this course up. With firm, fast conditions, there just aren’t that many birdie holes, but bogey is always in play. I think the number here is pretty low thanks to the scoring we have seen on the PGA Tour this season and the fact that everyone expects Scheffler to run away with it this week. But in order to be -6 (274) for the tournament, someone is going to have to play pretty much mistake-free golf for 72 holes.

For more coverage of the U.S. Open, visit the Fried Egg Golf U.S. Open hub.