Paulie’s Picks: 2024 Zozo Championship

The PGA Tour makes the trip across the Pacific this week for the Zozo Championship in Japan, held once again at Narashino Country Club. This is the first event this fall that will actually feature some of the top players in the world such as defending champion Collin Morikawa, world No. 2 Xander Schauffele and 2021 winner Hideki Matsuyama. This 78-player field event has no cut, which makes finishing position bets this week very interesting. Historically we have seen elite ballstriking, especially with irons, be the top predictor of success at Narashino. Let’s take a look at three ballstrikers to target with your Zozo Championship picks:

Doug Ghim: Top 20 +125

Ghim heads to Japan fresh off a runner-up finish at the Shriners Children’s Open, where he gained a total of 14 strokes on the field, including nearly seven shots approaching the green. His iron game has been elite all year as he hasn’t lost strokes on approach in an event since March. In a weaker field – aside from a few big names – filled with many players coming back from time off or struggling with their games, Ghim to finish top 20 is a strong bet.

J.J. Spaun: Top 20 +140

Spaun is of a similar mold to Ghim as he, too, hasn’t lost strokes on approach in an event since March and hasn’t finished outside the top 45 in any event since early June. A top-45 finish in a full-field event is similar to a top 20 in this 78-player limited field. He finished 25th (2022) and 6th (2023) in his two previous appearances at Narashino when he was in much worse form than he is now. I will gladly take him +140 to finish top 20 when he should probably be slightly favored to do so this year.

Joel Dahmen: Top 40 -110

With an extremely weak bottom 25% of the field, it won’t take much to finish top 40 this week. Dahmen is one of only four players to rank inside the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Approach the Green amongst players in this field, but he’s struggled with his short game all season and sits 134th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green. He has played at Narashino three times and earned his best result last season when he finished 16th.