What a great week we had at the American Express cashing winning tickets with top-20 finishes for J.T. Poston (+170) and Adam Hadwin (+225). We now try for a fourth consecutive week of profit to start the 2024 campaign. Once again, we will have multiple courses in use as the 156-player field visits Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open.

What is needed for success this week:

  • Elite driving with length preferred
  • Above average mid to long iron play
  • Above average around the green

So let’s take a look at three top-20 wagers:

Ludvig Aberg Top 20 +105

This is a great buy-low spot for Aberg. Just one month ago everyone was talking about him being the next Jon Rahm because of his elite driving. The hype slowed a bit after he struggled to a 47th place finish at The Sentry and a 30th place finish at the Sony Open, which are both some of the more unique courses on the PGA Tour and don’t fit Aberg’s prime skillset of elite driving. We are seeing a bit of an overreaction to his pricing after those two results. He now heads to arguably one of the courses on Tour that provides the biggest advantage to elite drivers. Aberg ranks first overall in the field off the tee and is sixth in driving distance. I fully expect Aberg to be in contention for many years at this course similar to Rahm based on that elite driving.

Tony Finau Top 20 +120

Finau has finished inside the top 20 in seven of the last eight years of this event. He ranks top 10 in approach overall and from 175-plus yards. Tony is also a very underrated chipper and pitcher of the ball, ranking 20th around the green. He hits the ball miles off the tee when it’s needed and excels on more difficult courses, which is what we expect this week. We are getting a cheaper-than-expected price on Finau this week after lackluster finishes of 25th at American Express and 38th at Sentry.

Justin Rose Top 20 +230

Rose is the longshot play this week for a top 20. He has achieved this in five of the last seven years of this event. Rose’s PGA Tour success has often come on the more traditional and difficult course setups. He ranks top 25 in the field in around the green, overall approach, approach from 175-plus yards, and putting. If he has any semblance of a driver this week, he will have a chance to finish top 20.

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