Having taken a look at what it takes to succeed at Valhalla while focusing on which favorites to bet, let’s pivot to examine the pool of longshots. I’m not saying these players are going to win this PGA Championship, but we can make some money in other markets with odds derived from chance to win, like top-20 or top-40 bets. Or, heck, one of these players may help you win an office pool or fantasy contest.

I’m keeping the theme consistent with the Valhalla preview article: top notch off-the-tee results reign supreme. With that being said, there are three players in the top 10 in my driving metric that are very good plays for top 20, top 40, pools, or even a small bet on long odds to win. (All odds from time of writing on Friday, May 10th.)

Si Woo Kim 80/1 (DraftKings)

Do you remember the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines? Why am I bringing that up? Well, that’s the last time Si Woo Kim lost strokes off the tee! He has gone nearly 16 months without losing strokes to the field off the tee in any event. That is a recipe for elite consistency as shown by his nine top-30 finishes in his last 10 events. Now yes, I know he has never finished inside the top ten in a major, but he does have a win at the 2017 Players Championship. Si Woo could make for a great top-20 or top-40 bet at Valhalla. 

Dean Burmester 190/1 (Fanduel)

Burmester is an elite driver of the ball, and one of the longest players in the field. He has had one hell of a 2024 on LIV, finishing in the top 20 in six out of seven events, including a win at Doral’s demanding Blue Monster. Burmester is arguably a top-40 player in the world right now. His odds should be closer to 75/1. I would be on the lookout for any top-20 or top-40 wagers for Burmester when books start to post those on Monday. 

Keith Mitchell 280/1 (Fanduel)

Similar to Kim and Burmester, I do not think Mitchell will win. But he is likely to have some value in secondary markets based on the current price we are seeing for him to win. Over the last two years, Mitchell has gained strokes off the tee in all but three events, including every event in 2024. He has quietly also produced some of the best iron play in 2024 as well. He comes into Valhalla in great form, finishing top 20 in six of his last eight events. In those eight events, he has averaged 6.33 strokes gained on the field per event when combining off the tee and approach play. How good is that? Well, it ranks second, trailing only Scottie Scheffler. Elite ball-striking makes Mitchell a great option this week.

(Check back later in the week for a Best Bets article.)